183
FXUS64 KLUB 120709
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
209 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The upper high will continue to dominate over the southwestern US
today and tonight. The center of the upper high will push slightly
eastward through the afternoon and overnight hours from being
centered over Nevada to being situated over the Four Corners. This
will increase heights slightly from 591Dm to 593Dm. Despite the
slight increase in heights, thicknesses will remain fairly steady
state and will help to keep today`s temps on par with yesterday`s.
The increase in heights should help hinder convection, though
high res models do show some highly isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing over the far southern Rolling Plains and
the far souther South Plains during the late afternoon and early
evening along weak surface convergence and possibly very subtle
weakness in the upper high. Currently confidence and coverage
potential does not warrant any mentionable PoPs. Any storms that
do develop with be very slow moving to nearly stationary thanks to
very weak steering flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The forecast is looking dry through the weekend and for Monday as
well. The upper-high will remain ensconced over the Four Corners
region while an inverted trough currently located over nrn MX
moves slowly N-NW into the Big Bend region by Monday. High
temperatures across the forecast area should run mostly in the
middle to upper 90s, with a few readings just north of 100 degrees
in the Rolling Plains.

Eventually, the trough inching northward from the south, while
possibly developing into a closed low, and a shortwave moving out
of the Canadian Prairies into the Midwest and Central Plains
should help weaken the eastern periphery of the ridge over West
Texas, allowing for both an increase of mid-level moisture and
less capping. The details on how these different features will
interact (or not) are not very clear this far out, but it appears
that rain chances will return as early as Tuesday afternoon, and a
front moving into the area sometime Wed or Thu could increase
rain chances during that period. This pattern should also produce
some minor cooling, with highs backing off into the mid/upper 80s
and lower 90s for most. The upper-high will then build over the
Great Basin and Southern Rockies late week and we may trend hotter
and drier again, although at this time it appears we will be
spared the scorching heat farther to the west and northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon mainly south of LBB. Storms should
keep clear of the terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51