972
FXUS64 KLUB 121905
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Rather quiet and dry conditions are expected to unfold across the
South Plains region through the short term period as upper level
ridging and the associated high pressure continue to dominate over
the Four Corners region. With weak north to northeast flow aloft, in
combination with lack thereof forcing and moisture will lead to a
less than ideal environment for storms this evening into tomorrow.
Although, HREF guidance continues to suggest a few small pulse like
thunderstorms could develop across the southern South Plains and
Rolling Plains this afternoon as we reach convective temperatures.
However, confidence remains low in this occurring therefore have
kept the forecast dry through the afternoon and overnight hours.
As we head into tomorrow, a similar forecast will unfold as today
with little to no change in heights and thickness leading to
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s once again.
Winds will become slightly breezy across portions of the
southwestern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon as surface
troughing in the lee of the Rockies develops and amplifies.
Otherwise a copy and paste forecast can be expected to start the
weekend off.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An upper ridge and resultant strong capping should keep Sunday and
Monday storm-free. Mostly sunny skies and seasonal highs in the mid
90s are expected. A weak upper disturbance tracking northward from
Mexico will agitate the flow pattern and potentially lead to enough
forcing to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions
of the area. Wednesday into Thursday remain the main days of concern
with confidence increasing for more steady precipitation. A deep,
elongated upper low moving across the Great Lakes region will extend
a trough and resultant surface cold front over the region. The GFS
remains much faster than the ECMWF (and is likewise the preferred
solution by the NBM). A Wednesday afternoon FROPA in particular
would result in an increased storm potential. Nonetheless,
everything should be moved through my Thursday afternoon and a
strong ridge building to the west looks to curtail any significant
PoPs by late-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
TAF sites. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12