Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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527 FXUS64 KLUB 122333 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Rather quiet and dry conditions are expected to unfold across the South Plains region through the short term period as upper level ridging and the associated high pressure continue to dominate over the Four Corners region. With weak north to northeast flow aloft, in combination with lack thereof forcing and moisture will lead to a less than ideal environment for storms this evening into tomorrow. Although, HREF guidance continues to suggest a few small pulse like thunderstorms could develop across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains this afternoon as we reach convective temperatures. However, confidence remains low in this occurring therefore have kept the forecast dry through the afternoon and overnight hours. As we head into tomorrow, a similar forecast will unfold as today with little to no change in heights and thickness leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s once again. Winds will become slightly breezy across portions of the southwestern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon as surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies develops and amplifies. Otherwise a copy and paste forecast can be expected to start the weekend off. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 An upper ridge and resultant strong capping should keep Sunday and Monday storm-free. Mostly sunny skies and seasonal highs in the mid 90s are expected. A weak upper disturbance tracking northward from Mexico will agitate the flow pattern and potentially lead to enough forcing to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the area. Wednesday into Thursday remain the main days of concern with confidence increasing for more steady precipitation. A deep, elongated upper low moving across the Great Lakes region will extend a trough and resultant surface cold front over the region. The GFS remains much faster than the ECMWF (and is likewise the preferred solution by the NBM). A Wednesday afternoon FROPA in particular would result in an increased storm potential. Nonetheless, everything should be moved through my Thursday afternoon and a strong ridge building to the west looks to curtail any significant PoPs by late-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through the period. Light winds should veer west-southwesterly near sunrise before backing toward southeasterly tomorrow afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...DF