366
FXUS64 KLUB 142318
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Upper-level ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern in the
short term with dry and warm conditions. After our warm day today
temperatures will remain mild tonight thanks in part to surface
winds remaining around 10 mph as a LLJ develops early tomorrow
morning. The ridge will flatten and weaken a bit tomorrow but with
850 mb temperatures and overall thickness values increasing
temperatures will actually end up a few degrees warmer than today
ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. The hottest temperatures
are expected across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and
Rolling Plains where high temperatures near 105 degrees are
expected hence a Heat Advisory has been issued for this area from
1 pm until 7 pm Monday. Skies will remain mostly sunny with south
southwest winds around 10-15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Much of Tuesday looks to be dry as well, before an upper
shortwave and associated surface cold front approaches the area by
evening. There is still model uncertainty with regards to the
exact timing, however storm chances look to be generally confined
to the far southern Panhandle with instability diminishing after
sunset. A more moist, SE surface flow will develop behind the
front and bring the greatest precipitation chances late Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday. Stronger capping looks to occur
thereafter into next weekend with a ridge building to the west.
Although NBM is still broad-brushing the chance PoPs, this has
still been retained in current forecast given the continued SE
surface flow (albeit light) and N-NW flow aloft. Nonetheless,
relatively cooler temperatures will persist with the
southeasterlies. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 are expected
Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR and modest SSW winds will continue at all sites through this
TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30