913
FXUS64 KLUB 080516
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Surface troughing is strengthening across the western South Plains
this afternoon with a weak surface low near Bledsoe. This is leading
to a convergence zone across the South Plains with some cumulus
noted as of 1:30 pm. This zone will be the feature of interest for
thunderstorm development later this afternoon as upper-level lift
increases. As the shortwave approaches the region mid-level flow
will also increase and improve the effective bulk shear across the
South Plains to around 40 kts. Instability is also increasing this
afternoon with surface based CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg so
this parameter space would support the potential for a few
supercells this evening and with fairly straight hodographs
splitting supercells are likely. The main threat with this activity
will be for damaging straight line winds due to the inverted V
soundings but large hail is also possible however with how deep the
warm layer is, this should mitigate the overall hail threat. These
storms will also be efficient rain producers, however storms motions
will be between 15 and 30 mph so overall duration won`t be that long
which should limit the flash flood risk. This first round of storms
should diminish by midnight across the southern Rolling Plains with
mostly dry conditions persisting until Monday morning.

Monday morning a surface cold front currently located over southern
Kansas will be moving into our forecast area. This front will lead
to another round of showers and thunderstorms that move to the
southeast through the morning hours with the far southeastern Texas
Panhandle and Rolling Plains being the favored location for this
round. This band of thunderstorms may also produce some gusty winds
but the main threat will be brief heavy rainfall. Obviously
locations that see both rounds of storms will have a higher chance
for flooding with the second round however at this time it seems
that both rounds will impact different areas with only slight
overlap between the two. This front will also bring another shot of
cooler air into the region and with the cloudy and rainy start to
the day temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with locations on
the Caprock struggling to reach 80 degrees while east of the
escarpment temperatures should warm into the lower 80s. Showers are
expected to persist through the afternoon and early evening hours
before the upper-level lift moves east of our forecast area bringing
an end to the precipitation by the evening. With skies clearing
through the night temperatures will be quite pleasant overnight
dropping into the mid 50s across the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle to the mid 60s across the Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tuesday continues to look dry across the entire area ahead of a
ridge building to the west and in the absence of any shortwaves. The
upper low associated with Beryl will track into the Midwest on
Wednesday and its trough axis will move through the area late-
evening into early Thursday morning, bringing an increased chance of
showers and thuderstorms. Another series of shortwaves next weekend
look to continue the storm chances although confidence remains low
at this time. Temperatures will slightly increase each day, returning
to the mid-to-upper 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Convection has cleared KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW; and VFR will prevail
through sunrise amidst a brisk, east-northeasterly wind. Expect
CIGs to lower into MVFR and possibly IFR later this morning with
the potential for scattered -SHRA and -TSRA to affect all
terminals. Overcast will persist heading into the afternoon but
CIGs should lift to VFR by then outside of convection.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09