Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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707 FXUS64 KLUB 032344 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Although shortwave troughing is still expected over much of the area through this evening, mostly cloudy skies and showers persisting from this morning over the far southwestern Panhandle and northern South Plains are keeping the environment more stable/cooler in that area, which is where the storm development was expected to occur this afternoon/evening. As such, convective initiation looks to be limited and thunderstorm PoPs have been slightly curtailed from the previous forecast. Anything that does develop to the west will struggle to make it very far east before sunset. Highs today may only reach the mid 80s to the northwest, however the anticipated triple-digits will occur elsewhere, with a Heat Advisory continuing until 8 PM for portions of the southern Rolling Plains. After another mild night tonight, a cold front will move through for the 4th of July during the afternoon/evening. While the timing is still somewhat uncertain, confidence is slightly increasing with regards to more storm chances along the front in the Lubbock area between 6-9pm which may hinder any evening plans. Although storms are not expected to be severe, a few storms could become strong, producing gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. One more day of near triple-digit temperatures are expected before the front will bring a reprieve into this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 We expect scattered shower and t-storm activity to be slowly sagging southward through the forecast area Thursday evening following the front`s motion. This activity should start to wane after dark. However, additional storms are forecast to develop early Friday morning across northeast NM into the western TX Panhandle as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. This leads us into into some uncertainty with Friday`s forecast. High temperatures, extent of cloud cover and whether or not the upper wave will be strong enough to produce scattered to widespread showers & t-storms despite the relatively cool surface temperatures are all still a bit uncertain. It could turn out to be cool and mostly cloudy with less (although still some) shower activity through the day, then rain chances could pick up again Friday night as we see some isentropic upglide north of the old front coincide with lift from the next shortwave. We are fairly confident that highs on Friday will be much cooler than previous days, looking to be mainly in the 80s. Saturday could see some lingering shower activity in the morning as well, resulting in more cloud cover, although we still expect some moderation in temperatures - back up to highs in the lower 90s for most. We should heat up nicely on Sunday as southerly flow returns under transient shortwave ridging. but guidance shows the next shortwave trough, accompanied by another cold front, arriving sometime from Sunday evening to Monday morning. This will bump rain chances back up and also lead to cooler temperatures on Monday, with highs dropping back down into the 80s. Looking farther out, the sprawling upper-high across the Western CONUS may slowly start expanding eastward, potentially jutting out in the southern High Plains by the middle of next week, bringing warmer temperatures and lowering rain chances as the northwest flow aloft gradually becomes replaced by northerly or even northeasterly flow. However, not all guidance is on board with this quite yet, and some solutions maintain a cooler and unsettled NW-N flow pattern through most of the week with the upper ridge remaining parked to the west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A band of diminishing showers/sprinkles has just passed through PVW, and will likely fade completely before reaching CDS. However, this band of mid-level moisture will shift over all of the TAF sites through the evening/night, with VFR cigs generally in the 10,000 to 15,000 ft AGL range. An isolated sprinkle/shower could fall from this cloud cover, though with minimal impacts other than perhaps variable and somewhat gusty breezes. The 4th of July will bring another day of heat (check altitude density), but a cold front will move in from the north, affecting the terminals during the late afternoon or evening. In addition to a wind shift and cooler temperatures, the front will provide a focus for late-day convection around and after 21Z. We have included a VCTS remark at both LBB and PVW, where storm chances appear greatest near the end of the TAF window. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...23