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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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943 FXUS64 KLUB 162334 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The upper level ridge and associated high pressure system over southwestern CONUS will continue to expand eastward this afternoon with the FA positioned along the eastern flank of the ridge. A very weak perturbation passing through the eastern side of the ridge will allow for a slight chance for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and early evening across the far southern Texas Panhandle. By tomorrow, the ridge will begin to slightly retreat westward as an upper level trough tracks through the Great Lakes region therefore allowing northwest flow aloft to prevail across the FA. A slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Initial convection will develop in eastern New Mexico along the higher terrain before making a slow south to southeastward progression into the FA. Uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will make their way into our northern zones late tonight with latest guidance backing off as the shortwave trough decays. However, we could see some scattered showers develop along a weak frontal boundary pushing southward from the northern Texas Panhandle overnight. The beginning of a slight reprieve in hot temperatures is expected tomorrow as early morning FROPA shifts winds out of the northeast. This passage will also work in conjuction with northwest flow aloft to decrease thickness values. All of this together will lead to a pleasant day across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Moisture is expected to remain locked over the region; in addition, a perturbation in the flow aloft may allow for thunderstorm development once again along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 By OZ Thursday, the synoptic-scale setup over the CONUS should feature an upper-level ridge over the West and a positively tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes Region toward Quebec. Later this week, the ridge should be pushed westward as the trough deepens over the northern Great Plains, putting the forecast area under NW to NNW flow aloft for nearly the whole long term period. As a result, PoPs increase beginning Wednesday evening. PoPs stay mentionable but decrease Friday afternoon, followed by an increase due to the arrival of a shortwave Saturday. Because of the consistent pattern, each day`s weather will be affected by the previous day`s conditions. Cloud cover should limit daily high temperatures to below average, providing a break from the heat. Likewise, clouds should cause lows to trend warmer until Saturday before cooling down for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR is expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours. An area of scattered TS near AMA this evening will send an outflow boundary southward which will bring a northerly wind shift to all terminals tonight. While confidence in the wind shift is high, very low confidence exists regarding whether any additional TS develop along this boundary as it shifts southward. This potential for additional convection overnight looks best at CDS and will include VCTS there, with lower probability for convection at LBB/PVW. Will omit TS mention at LBB/PVW for now and amend as necessary. Winds will then become predominantly easterly by Wednesday morning, with additional convection possible at all sites on Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...30