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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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929 FXUS64 KLUB 110518 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 An upper-level ridge was evident on water vapor imagery over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, along with a trough over the north- central US. The forecast area sits between these two features through the short term period, though the ridge should begin to exert more influence tomorrow as it drifts eastward. In the meantime, a piece of energy lagging behind the trough should reach the CWA by this evening, providing subtle forcing. Pulse thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon in the southern Rolling Plains, where convective temperatures have been reached. Convection may also develop later this afternoon along a subtle differential heating boundary near the I-27 corridor or any other areas that reach convective temp. Inverted-v soundings with DCAPE >1000 J/kg will be widespread across the CWA by late afternoon, indicating the potential for a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts with the more robust cells. Storms should diminish from southeast to northwest beginning after sunset, with storms coming to an end as late as midnight across the far southwest TXPH and the western South Plains. Tomorrow`s high temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s-- slightly above average-- as 500mb heights rise through the afternoon and subsidence increases aloft. While the environment is less favorable overall for precipitation tomorrow, there is a possibility for convective initiation Thursday afternoon given a well-mixed boundary layer and modest CAPE values in the 800-1200 J/kg range. However, confidence in both the probability and coverage of precipitation is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Upper level ridging centered over the Four Corners region will expand slightly eastward during the late week period, resulting in modest height rises aloft and relatively quiet weather across West Texas late this week through the first half of the weekend. Despite the associated increasing subsidence and overall drying aloft, layer thicknesses are progged to remain fairly subdued as the core of the ridge stays to our northwest. Temperatures will therefore only rise a few degrees during this period, with Friday likely the warmest day of the upcoming week as highs reach into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The pattern then becomes a bit more interesting during the second half of the weekend into early next week as a broad inverted mid/upper level trough slowly translates northwestward over the Rio Grande Valley into the Big Bend region. This will suppress the upper ridge further to our northwest while also pulling a more notable plume of midlevel moisture back northward into our area, resulting in increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures Sunday through early next week. At the moment, the northwestward progression of this wave looks slow enough to keep our area dry through at least Tuesday. But, shower and storm chances return to most of the region during the middle of next week as the upper wave lifts further northward and attempts to phase with broader troughing to our north. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 TAFs VFR through 12/06Z. Isolated -TSRA anticipated once again mainly between 21Z and 03Z but too low chance of this affecting any of the terminals and will be omitted this cycle. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DF LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...13