019
FXUS64 KLUB 171747
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For Wednesday, an upper level ridge will amplify roughly along the
continental divide. This will favor low level upslope flow and
convection off the higher terrain this afternoon into the overnight
hours. However, before this occurs, a surface boundary currently
moving through the area may spark additional thunderstorms this
afternoon. The outflow boundary reinforced cold front will continue
to move southward through the rest of the morning and will likely
settle near the southern South Plains into the Permian Basin. Low
level convergence will be maximized mostly in the Permian Basin
along this stalled out boundary but strong heating north of the
boundary will completely erode the cap. A weak trough at 700mb will
be moving from north to south across the region today which may
enhance lift in close proximity to the surface boundary.
Furthermore, cooling temperatures at 700mb within this trough will
contribute to the weakening cap by late afternoon. Nearly uncapped
air is anticipated by mid to late afternoon with a fairly deep mixed
layer to roughly 750mb or so. This will yield forecast mixed layer
instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Upslope flow into
New Mexico may bring the potential for convection into the western
South Plains. As with the probability of precipitation, severe
chances will be low with this initial activity. Another benefit of
the cold front will be slightly cooler temperatures area wide this
afternoon.

Better chances of precipitation will manifest itself during the
evening and overnight hours as a mesoscale convective system will
grow upscale out of eastern New Mexico. The aforementioned upslope
flow will extend from eastern New Mexico northward along the front
range of the Rockies along with a weak short wave trough at mid-
levels bringing favorable chances for convection. This convection
will likely experience upscale growth as it moves to the southeast
out of New Mexico into West Texas. As with most of these scenarios,
the western South Plains will be the most favored region for
convection with decreasing chances to the east. Strong instability
out ahead of convection will favor this convection moving into the
South Plains late tonight into early Thursday morning. But with the
possible afternoon convection, severe chances are low. Isolated
strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The upper high will remain over the Four Corners region tomorrow and
will slowly retreat westward into the weekend. This will help to
keep the FA under northerly to northwesterly flow well into next
week. While this will bring in at least chance PoPs through Friday,
a second cold front is progged to push through the region late
Saturday into early Sunday as an upper shortwave trough pushes
southward from central Canada into the Midwest. The addition of this
front will provide additional lift and increased storm chances. The
front, as well as potential rainfall, will help cool temps from the
low/mid 90s late this week to the mid/upper 80s next week. There is
still some uncertainty with timing and coverage of precip through
much of the forecast period. More widespread coverage and any
lingering cloud cover could cool daily high temps further (but not
by too much) than what is forecasted. The overall threat for severe
convection is low, but some storms could produce marginally severe
wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
except during possible thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
Due to the location of the weak cold front by this evening,
confidence is somewhat higher in storms affecting LBB and points
west and south. Thus, a PROB30 for this evening has been kept for
LBB at the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds, lightning,
and drops in visibility due to rain are expected with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...58