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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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032 FXUS64 KLUB 152330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 An upper-level ridge was located over the Southern Rockies this morning, with a positively tilted trough stretching from east Texas up to the Great Lakes region. The forecast area remains under the east side of this ridge through the short term period. Meanwhile, a 500mb shortwave is expected to move into the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma overnight tonight. With subsidence aloft, light winds, and clear skies today, hot temperatures are expected this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm for the far southeast TXPH and the northeast Rolling Plains, where temperatures are expected to surpass 105 degrees F. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the TXPH and propagate south as the 500mb shortwave approaches. This activity should have all but dissipated by the time it reaches the CWA, though the far southern TXPH may see an isolated shower or two after midnight. Temperatures will be just as hot tomorrow, warranting a Heat Advisory from 1-7pm Tuesday in the same areas as today. Due to the timing of the shortwave, SBCAPE values on Tuesday will reach a maximum in the morning hours. However, marginal instability (CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg) will still be present into the late afternoon, particularly across the far southern TXPH. The most likely area for CI will be along any remaining outflow boundaries from tonight`s convection, which most likely would be located across the far southern TXPH. This may help to overcome the inversion in place across the forecast area, although the location and magnitude of convergence along the outflow remains uncertain at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The upcoming week can be characterized by ridging out west and in the western Atlantic surrounding a weakness over SERN TX. The best H2 speed max this week will be situated over the Great Lakes into tomorrow though we`ll see some changes in synoptic scale morphology over the next week. A positively tilted trough across Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley will sharpen on Tuesday evening while a shortwave trough comes ashore the Pacific NW. The Pac NW will ride over the top of the ridge (across the Canadian Rockies) then dive southeast into the central plains by late Friday. During the period from Tuesday night through Friday night an increasingly sharp trough is expected to expand southward from the upper Mississippi Valley into ERN TX/LA. Synoptic effects on WTX weather / upper level flow will vary depending on the positioning of the mid CONUS low. Most notable will be a period of NW flow aloft Thursday into Friday then again on Saturday evening into Sunday. Tuesday evening s should see a complex of storms over SWRN KS INVOF a surface front. The outflow from these storms should reinforce the southward surge of northerly winds though the resulting theta-e of the airmass behind the initial boundary would not be characteristic of a honest front. Storms should largely stay north of the area though, this time of year, guidance often struggles with prospects for overnight convection given the sparsity of mid level data out this way. On Wednesday, storms should be able to develop along the remnant outflow boundary perhaps aided by a surge of the actual back- door frontal boundary. In reality, guidance has been having a hard time with geographical evolution of these summertime fronts. Indeed, the convection could fire south of the CWFA on Wednesday, but uncertainty dictates we keep the forecast with a risk of storms as past results does not guarantee future results. By Thursday, the theta-e fields would suggest that the actual intended frontal airmass will finally make it into the area. Will it be cold? Definitely not, but at least temperatures on Wed/Thu should be a few degrees below seasonal averages. Friday looks interesting given what looks to be a possible NW flow aloft event. While precip fields appear to support storms, the mid to upper level flow does look to be a bit northerly for a classical setup, but things can change between now and then...and probably will. Saturday night and Sunday`s guidance with the ECM and GFS both show widespread storm chances across the southern plains and southern Rockies. Overall, this looks over-done for this time of year esepcially given a lack of forcing. Additionally, the forecast soundings would not suggest nearly as much opportunity for precip. Yet, given the uncertainty, the blends keep mentionable TSTM chances every day starting tomorrow evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR expected to continue through the next 24 hours. Some TS may develop near CDS towards the end of this TAF period, but given low confidence this potential will be addressed in later TAF issuances. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...30