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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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879 FXUS63 KLSX 061113 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 613 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly above average temperatures and lower humidity are expected today through Sunday. - The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday, with the greatest chances Sunday night and Monday. - High temperatures will hover near normal much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Night) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Even with a surface ridge overhead today, there is still some weak cyclonic flow aloft, so could see isolated/scattered cu develop by this afternoon. Otherwise with mostly sunny skies and light west to northwest winds, highs will be in the 80s. In the meantime, an upper level trough will develop and deepen over the northern/central Plains. So active pattern expected once again from late Sunday through the work week. A majority of the latest deterministic models as well as CAMs indicate that an MCS will develop over eastern NE and slide east tonight, mainly north of the MO/IA border. Could see remnants of the complex move into northeast MO towards daybreak on Sunday, but confidence is low at this time, so kept forecast dry through the morning hours. As the surface ridge slides off to the east on Sunday, surface flow will become south to southwesterly once again. This will usher in increasing moisture/instability as well as WAA. By Sunday afternoon, a shortwave will round the base of the trough and begin to slide northeastward along a cold front over the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over eastern KS/western MO, increasing in coverage and slide east into the region Sunday night. In the meantime, highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Byrd && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Even though the upper level trough will continue to slide to the east through early next week, the latest LREF cluster analysis is now beginning to indicate some differences among the ensemble members due to possible influences from the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl after it moves on shore over southeastern TX Monday. For now as the trough moves into the mid-upper MS Valley, will see several rounds of showers and storms as the cold front moves through the region exiting by Tuesday night. Trough becomes stationary over the area through the rest of the work week with additional chances of showers and storms through Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Will see some scattered diurnal CU develop this afternoon for TAF sites along Mississippi River, then dissipate by early this evening. As for winds, they will remain light and from the west to northwest. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX