521
FXUS63 KLSX 051118
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
618 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After slightly below average temperatures today, near average
  temperatures will persist through the weekend and into next
  week.

- The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday
  evening through Monday evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms, as well as the cold front, will exit
the region by 12z with dry conditions for the rest of the day.
Will allow and/or cancel the Flood Watch by 10z Saturday. Otherwise,
as a surface ridge begins to build into the area a secondary
shortwave will slide southeast on the backside of the system
anchored over the Great Lakes. However, the main energy and
dynamics are well northeast of the region, so only expect diurnal
cu development this afternoon. With some weak CAA moving in today,
as well as lower humidity, highs will be slightly below average
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

With the ridge overhead tonight, the combination of light and
variable winds as well as clear skies will allow for plenty of
radiational cooling. Lows tonight will dip down into the 60s, but
remain near normal for this time of year.

Another dry and sunny day on Saturday with light northwest to west
winds and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The latest LREF cluster analysis has good agreement with timing,
strength and location of an upper level trough that will deepen
over the Northern/Central Plains with an upper level ridge
retrograding back over the West Coast. Also, as the surface ridge
slides off to the east, low level flow will become south to
southwesterly once again, ushering in increasing moisture and
instability. The latest deterministic as well as ensembles
indicate that multiple shortwaves will round the longwave trough
providing several opportunities for more showers and storms from
Sunday night through the rest of next week. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Skies continue to clear out early this morning with VFR flight
conditions expected through the forecast period. Will see some
diurnal cu pop up this afternoon, but remain VFR. The cu will
dissipate early this evening. As for winds, they will remain west
to northwest and pickup by this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts
at times. Then winds will diminish after 00z-01z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX