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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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360 FXUS63 KLSX 170331 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1031 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly across southern Missouri and southern Illinois. Heavy rainfall producing flash flooding is the main threat, although some stronger storms could produce gusty winds. - An extended period of cooler than normal mid-summer temperatures is expected to last through the end of the week with predominantly dry conditions expected as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A slow moving cold front has entered the forecast area, although it is being somewhat masked by widespread stratiform rain in the wake of earlier convection. Extensive cloud cover associated with this rainfall has led to much cooler temperatures and a locally stable environment which has reduced the threat for additional thunderstorms this afternoon. However, the southern portion of Missouri did not get as much rain or cloud cover today, with hot and humid conditions leading to robust instability. Additional thunderstorms are expected to form here along outflow boundaries as well as associated with a remnant MCV drifting east out of southeast Kansas. Much of this renewed thunderstorm development will stay south of our forecast area, but the southern portions of our area may be impacted by rain from this. Considering very high PWATs in excess of 2 inches and the potential for training convection, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for southern portions of the area. However, the central and northern portions of the Watch have been canceled as additional flash flooding is no longer expected in those areas. Thunderstorms which form this evening are expected to move off to the southeast during the evening, likely exiting our forecast area entirely by around midnight. This also shifts the area for renewed development on Wednesday further south as well, and POPs for Wednesday have been duly adjusted downward. The temperature forecast has actually come up a bit, though, as we should see more sunshine. Still, though, below normal mid-summer temperatures mainly in the mid 80s are expected. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Western ridging and eastern troughing keeps our area in a north to northwesterly flow aloft and relatively cool surface high pressure in place near the area. This will bring dry and below normal temperatures through the end of the week. Indications are we could see some shortwave troughs dropping southeast through the upper level flow late in the week which bring rain chances back in the forecast, but the overall upper pattern remains similar with below normal temperatures. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are entering southeast Missouri as of 04z and are expected to persist through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings are accompanying the precipitation and spreading well north of it. This blow-off is expected to reduce flight conditions at the St. Louis metropolitan terminals for a few hours early this morning. Because of the incoming cloud cover, impactful fog is not anticipated tonight. A cold front currently pushing through northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois will continue to push south, clearing skies and switching surface winds to northerly behind it. By late this morning, largely dry and VFR conditions are expected areawide. There is a slight chance of isolated afternoon convection along the cold front, but this should be confined to areas generally along and south of I-44/I-64. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Crawford MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Randolph IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX