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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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898 FXUS63 KLSX 202323 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances of rain showers or weak thunderstorms exists beginning Sunday and continuing next week. Chances will tend to "peak" in the afternoon/early evening each day when there is a bit more instability. - The activity the next several days looks spotty (much more dry time than not), with nothing organized/widespread expected. No severe weather or heavy rainfall is forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The quasi-stationary area of surface high pressure is expected to continue to weaken tonight over the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. This means we will lose the predominant northeasterly winds which were helping to maintain low dewpoints/relative humidity values the past few days. This combined with an increase in mostly midlevel cloud cover should yield warmer low temperatures compared to the past few nights. Readings are expected to drop back into the 60s, near to slightly below normal for the date. Dry weather is also expected, though a stray shower or some sprinkles cannot be ruled out overnight. Isolated showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, are expected late Sunday. This activity should be mainly along/west of the Mississippi River and during the late afternoon/very early evening hours. This is when diurnal instability reaches its peak. This "peak" though certainly comes in a relative sense, with the HREF only showing about 20-50% probabilities for >500 J/kg of SBCAPE Sunday afternoon. Needless to say, those values are anomalously low for mid/late July, and why any lightning activity should be few and far between. This meager instability fades toward and just after sunset Sunday, with dry weather then favored Sunday night. Status quo is the rule for temperatures, with highs mostly in the low 80s on Sunday and lows Sunday night in the 60s. The high temperatures would be some 5-7 degrees below normal but lows near to slightly below normal. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 There is very little change in the synoptic pattern through the middle of the work week. The mid-Mississippi Valley is expected to be beneath a weak mid/upper level shear axis. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, mainly during the afternoon/very early evening hours when instability is highest. Overnight periods should be dry, or at least mostly dry, due to little/no sensible low-level jet and associated moisture convergence. The strongest low-level jet is Monday night (~15 knots), but that is centered across the mid south. Activity each day also should be unorganized with very little threat for any strong to severe convection or heavy rainfall. While instability should creep up into next week (probabilities on the grand ensemble for >1000 J/kg above 50% beginning Wednesday afternoon), deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 15-20 knots. In addition, precipitable water values on the NAEFS peak out around 1.50", which would be only slightly above normal for mid/late July. While low PoPs linger all the way through the end of the work week, they do shift a bit more to the southeast. There is a pretty good signal for a cold frontal passage by Thursday, but uncertainty comes in with respect to how far south it gets before stalling. If it stalls far enough south of the area, then dry weather would become more likely whereas PoPs may be need to expand if the front stalls out further north somewhere across the CWA. Some additional gradual warming is likely through the period, with low temperatures warming more toward the mid 60s to near 70 degrees (near normal) and highs in the mid to upper 80s (~2-4F below normal). The NBM has very little spread between the 25th/75th percentile, even at day 7 (~4F). This makes sense given the very slowly evolving mid/upper level pattern across the CONUS and little/no likelihood for widespread organized convection, which could really limit daytime temperatures. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Despite mid and high clouds across the region, expect VFR flight conditions through the forecast period with light and variable winds. There could be some sprinkles at KCOU and KJEF at the onset of TAF period, but confidence is low that any measurable precipitation will occur. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX