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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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357 FXUS63 KLSX 072100 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the area, expanding eastward across the CWA tonight through Monday. - An isolated strong-severe storm is possible into early evening across parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, and across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Monday afternoon. - The remnant circulation of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is expected to track across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday and Tuesday evening. There remains some uncertainty in the exact track, but a swath of heavy rain from 2-4 inches will likely accompany the track which could pose flooding concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Afternoon) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A series of vort maxes across western MO along with a weak boundary in western MO have already lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms from northeast through west-central MO this afternoon. There is some pretty decent instability ahead of the storms into northeast MO and this along with effective shear of 25-30 kts could result in a few strong to severe storms into early evening with one inch hail and damaging winds the main threat. Otherwise these vorticity maxima along with an increasing southwesterly LLJ and the advancing boundary should lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms impacting primarily northeast and central MO and west-central IL tonight. The upstream longwave trof is forecast to steadily deepen and progress eastward on Monday with additional disturbances in the flow aloft and the aforementioned boundary providing the impetus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The exact convective trends are a bit unclear but there should be some combination of ongoing activity in the morning and then newer development across east-central and southeast MO and southern IL in the afternoon where the best instability will reside. Isolated strong to severe storms would be possible with the afternoon storms and this has been supported by a few of the CAMS. Glass && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The latest guidance shows the southern portion of the progressive upper trof will have a greater interaction with TC Beryl and will be deeper, leading to a more northward track following the recurvature. The latest NHC forecast along with latest superensemble track guidance suggests the center of the remnant circulation will track across southeast MO and southern IL Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain will spread into southeast MO and southern IL late Monday night associated with the initial surge of mid-high level moisture and the interaction with an ULJ to the north. Present indications are a band of locally heavy rain, 2-4 inches, will accompany the remnants of Beryl as it tracks through the CWA. At this time and given the current track, it appears this band will be centered through southeast and east-central MO and southwest IL. If there is favorable overlap where we saw heavy rain in early July across eastern MO and southwest IL where soil moisture is high, then there could be some flash flood concerns. The additional rainfall will certainly add to the mainstem river flooding and potentially produce river flooding in smaller basins south of St. Louis. Depending on the exact low track and timing, there could be tornado threat across parts of southeast MO and southern IL closer to the low but this is highly conditional on the low track. After the remnant low exits to the east-northeast on Wednesday it appears that all-in-all we should see a tranquil period. We might see an isolated diurnal thunderstorm across parts of the area on Thursday afternoon, but it looks predominately dry heading late week into next weekend. Temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal due to clouds and rain, but rising heights late week into the weekend signal a return to more summer-like heat with highs in the 90s. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 For KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across western MO this afternoon, and eventually develop or move into central and northeast MO by late afternoon and into the evening. This has prompted VCTS at KJEF, KCOU, and KUIN generally within the 00-03/04z time frame, and if there is a direct terminal impact then flight conditions will be reduced and gusty winds will be possible as well. After around 04z, there will be potential for showers into the overnight hours impacting these same terminals, and then some MVFR stratus on Monday morning. For KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS: At this time, the St. Louis region terminals are expected to be VFR and remain east of the shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. Showers and maybe evening a thunderstorm will be possible after 14-15z Monday however confidence is low, hence at this time only VCSH has been mentioned. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX