540
FXUS63 KLSX 080140
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
840 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The threat for strong thunderstorms this afternoon has largely
ended as outflow has raced well out ahead of the thunderstorms,
and even the newer updrafts are starting off elevated and behind
the gust front. That gust front is moving through the St Louis
area as of 830PM. We still expect some showers and thunderstorms
overnight as the low level jet picks up, but coverage is expected
to decrease over the next few hours and may be relatively sparse
overnight as well. There should be a lull Monday morning before
renewed thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon, this time more
likely in the central and southeast portions of the forecast area.
We`ve made some updates to try to show the hourly progression of
precipitation chances, but we really can`t rule out some activity
showing up on our radar anytime during the next 48-60 hours or so.
The best threat window for strong to severe storms (marginal
risk) is Monday afternoon, and the best threat for flooding
(slight risk) is on Tuesday.

Kimble

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the
  area, expanding eastward across the CWA tonight through Monday.

- An isolated strong-severe storm is possible into early evening
  across parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois,
  and across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Monday
  afternoon.

- The remnant circulation of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is expected to
  track across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday
  and Tuesday evening. There remains some uncertainty in the exact
  track, but a swath of heavy rain from 2-4 inches will likely
  accompany the track which could pose flooding concerns.


&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A series of vort maxes across western MO along with a weak boundary
in western MO have already lead to the development of showers and
thunderstorms from northeast through west-central MO this
afternoon. There is some pretty decent instability ahead of the
storms into northeast MO and this along with effective shear of
25-30 kts could result in a few strong to severe storms into early
evening with one inch hail and damaging winds the main threat.
Otherwise these vorticity maxima along with an increasing
southwesterly LLJ and the advancing boundary should lead to
scattered to numerous showers and storms impacting primarily
northeast and central MO and west-central IL tonight.

The upstream longwave trof is forecast to steadily deepen and
progress eastward on Monday with additional disturbances in the
flow aloft and the aforementioned boundary providing the impetus
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The exact
convective trends are a bit unclear but there should be some
combination of ongoing activity in the morning and then newer
development across east-central and southeast MO and southern IL
in the afternoon where the best instability will reside. Isolated
strong to severe storms would be possible with the afternoon
storms and this has been supported by a few of the CAMS.

Glass

&&

.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The latest guidance shows the southern portion of the progressive
upper trof will have a greater interaction with TC Beryl and will
be deeper, leading to a more northward track following the recurvature.
The latest NHC forecast along with latest superensemble track
guidance suggests the center of the remnant circulation will track
across southeast MO and southern IL Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Rain will spread into southeast MO and southern IL late Monday
night associated with the initial surge of mid-high level moisture
and the interaction with an ULJ to the north. Present indications
are a band of locally heavy rain, 2-4 inches, will accompany the
remnants of Beryl as it tracks through the CWA. At this time and
given the current track, it appears this band will be centered
through southeast and east-central MO and southwest IL. If there
is favorable overlap where we saw heavy rain in early July across
eastern MO and southwest IL where soil moisture is high, then
there could be some flash flood concerns. The additional rainfall
will certainly add to the mainstem river flooding and potentially
produce river flooding in smaller basins south of St. Louis.
Depending on the exact low track and timing, there could be
tornado threat across parts of southeast MO and southern IL closer
to the low but this is highly conditional on the low track.

After the remnant low exits to the east-northeast on Wednesday it
appears that all-in-all we should see a tranquil period. We might
see an isolated diurnal thunderstorm across parts of the area on
Thursday afternoon, but it looks predominately dry heading late
week into next weekend.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal due to clouds
and rain, but rising heights late week into the weekend signal a
return to more summer-like heat with highs in the 90s.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Thunderstorms continue early this evening but are generally
pushing away from the central MO and UIN TAF locations and should
weaken over the next few hours. Overall winds are light out of the
south, but are variable due to thunderstorm outflow, one of which
will likely shift the winds at STL to the northwest around 1Z.
There will likely be a reduction in shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight into Monday morning before a new round of
storms begins Monday afternoon, this time further to the
southeast with the potential to impact the St Louis metro.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX