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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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586 FXUS63 KLSX 051653 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1153 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After slightly below average temperatures today, near average temperatures will persist through the weekend and into next week. - The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday evening through Monday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms, as well as the cold front, will exit the region by 12z with dry conditions for the rest of the day. Will allow and/or cancel the Flood Watch by 10z Saturday. Otherwise, as a surface ridge begins to build into the area a secondary shortwave will slide southeast on the backside of the system anchored over the Great Lakes. However, the main energy and dynamics are well northeast of the region, so only expect diurnal cu development this afternoon. With some weak CAA moving in today, as well as lower humidity, highs will be slightly below average in the upper 70s to mid 80s. With the ridge overhead tonight, the combination of light and variable winds as well as clear skies will allow for plenty of radiational cooling. Lows tonight will dip down into the 60s, but remain near normal for this time of year. Another dry and sunny day on Saturday with light northwest to west winds and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Byrd && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The latest LREF cluster analysis has good agreement with timing, strength and location of an upper level trough that will deepen over the Northern/Central Plains with an upper level ridge retrograding back over the West Coast. Also, as the surface ridge slides off to the east, low level flow will become south to southwesterly once again, ushering in increasing moisture and instability. The latest deterministic as well as ensembles indicate that multiple shortwaves will round the longwave trough providing several opportunities for more showers and storms from Sunday night through the rest of next week. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period. Diurnal cumulus is expected this afternoon with scattered high clouds tonight. Northwest surface winds will gust to 20+ kts this afternoon and diminish early this evening. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX