196
FXUS63 KLSX 050808
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
308 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After slightly below average temperatures today, near average temperatures
  will persist through the weekend and into next week.

- The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday
  evening through Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms, as well as the cold front, will exit
the region by 12z with dry conditions for the rest of the day.
Will allow and/or cancel the Flood Watch by 10z Saturday. Otherwise,
as a surface ridge begins to build into the area a secondary
shortwave will slide southeast on the backside of the system
anchored over the Great Lakes. However, the main energy and
dynamics are well northeast of the region, so only expect diurnal
cu development this afternoon. With some weak CAA moving in today,
as well as lower humidity, highs will be slightly below average
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

With the ridge overhead tonight, the combination of light and
variable winds as well as clear skies will allow for plenty of
radiational cooling. Lows tonight will dip down into the 60s, but
remain near normal for this time of year.

Another dry and sunny day on Saturday with light northwest to west
winds and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The latest LREF cluster analysis has good agreement with timing,
strength and location of an upper level trough that will deepen
over the Northern/Central Plains with an upper level ridge
retrograding back over the West Coast. Also, as the surface ridge
slides off to the east, low level flow will become south to
southwesterly once again, ushering in increasing moisture and
instability. The latest deterministic as well as ensembles
indicate that multiple shortwaves will round the longwave trough
providing several opportunities for more showers and storms from
Sunday night through the rest of next week. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Some lingering smoke from 4th of July fireworks may periodically
reduce surface visibilities to MVFR levels this evening, but this
is likely to occur prior to 06Z. The primary concern continues to
be the potential for a round of showers and thunderstorms
overnight, particularly at St. Louis metro area terminals. St.
Louis will likely be located along the northern periphery of these
storms, so there remains some uncertainty regarding whether local
terminals, including STL, will be directly impacted. The TAF will
be amended as confidence increases enough to include a prevailing
mention in the TAF.

Otherwise, ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR levels during and
shortly after showers/storms move through the area. VFR conditions
are expected to persist the remainder of the period, with breezy
northwest winds developing tomorrow afternoon and ending quickly
after sunset.

BRC
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for Monroe IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX