Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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342 FXUS66 KLOX 171053 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 353 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...17/323 AM. Onshore flow will bring some cooling and night and morning low clouds and fog near the coast, otherwise mostly quiet weather is expected through next week. A warming trend will develop early next week. Hazardous heat will be possible next Tuesday or Wednesday for the interior. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...17/346 AM. Fairly benign weather across the area this weekend with increasing onshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures. Most areas will be at or slightly below seasonal normal temperatures. Marine layer stratus covers most of coastal LA and Ventura counties this morning and a little bit along the Central Coast. Low clouds expected to clear by mid to late morning in most areas. A similar pattern expected Sunday morning as well. A warming trend is expected to begin Monday as high pressure once again pushes into California from the east. Ensemble based guidance shows valleys and interior areas getting back up to 102-105 Monday and Tuesday and low 90s around Downtown LA. While these numbers are very borderline for heat risk, there`s a 20-30% chance that temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, pushing heat risk levels to advisory or warning criteria for areas away from the immediate coast. Models showing little to no monsoon moisture moving into our area the next several days so thunderstorm chances are very low. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/352 AM. High pressure is expected to weaken mid to late next week bringing temperatures back down closer to normal levels by Thu/Fri. With a trough returning to the West Coast onshore flow will be increasing with stronger afternoon and evening winds across the interior. This upper pattern is not favorable for thunderstorms locally so dry weather expected through the period. && .AVIATION...17/0015Z. At 2333Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 950 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2200 ft with a temperature of 27 deg C. High confidence in the 00Z TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. Moderate confidence in the Los Angeles County coastal TAFs. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours from current forecasts. Cig/vsby restrictions may shift between MVFR to IFR between 08Z and 14Z. CIGs may be period with conditions shifting to MVFR occasionally during the overnight period. Low confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours from currents forecast and minimum flight cat may be off by 1 cat at any time after cigs arrive. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions at KSMX and KOXR at any point after cigs arrive. There is a 20-30% chance KSBP remains VFR thru the period. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance that CIGs arrival is delayed until 08Z. Flight categories may shift to VFR at times with CIGs becoming SCT. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds through the period for the 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...17/319 AM. For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the waters south of Point Sal through Monday (Zones PZZ673/676). For the furthest northern zone (PZZ670), high confidence in SCA level winds this morning, then moderate confidence as winds winds will be at or just below advisory levels through Monday morning. Better confidence in SCA level winds Monday afternoon through mid-week, with a 20% chance of Gale Force wind gusts at times early next week. For the nearshore waters off the Central Coast, moderate confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Monday, with a 30% chance of SCA winds during the afternoon- evening hours through Wednesday. For the Santa Barbara Channel, moderate confidence in winds across the Western Portion of the channel, with a 30% chance of advisory level winds each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. In the eastern portion, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA level through Wednesday. For the southern inner waters, high confidence in conditions staying under SCA levels through the period. With a shallow marine layer, moderate confidence in patchy dense fog with visibilities under 1 nautical mile effecting the Central Coast waters and southern inner waters this morning, and again tonight through Sunday morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Lund/Smith SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox