112
FXUS66 KLOX 130136
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
636 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...12/124 PM.

Seasonable temperatures will likely continue through at least
this weekend with only small day-to-day changes. Night-to-morning
low clouds and fog will push into coastal areas at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...12/117 PM.

High confidence that seasonably warm weather will continue
through Thursday with only modest day-to-day changes with limited
impacts. A fairly progressive weather pattern for this time of
year will slide a weak trough through the region into Tuesday with
a ridge building in behind the feature into Wednesday/Thursday.
Gradual cooling trends will continue into Tuesday before gradual
warming trend into Wednesday or Thursday. Most areas will be
within about 5 degrees of normal highs (70-85 coastal areas and
85-98 elsewhere) for this time of year and even the hottest
valleys and deserts will struggle to reach 100 even during the
warmest parts of this stretch.

There is a 30-40 percent chance of advisory level Sundowners for
southwest Santa Barbara County Tuesday evening and a 50-70 percent
chance Wednesday and Thursday evenings with a 20-30 percent
chance of extending into the eastern Santa Ynez Range by Thursday
evening or night. Breezy northwest to onshore winds are expected
in interior areas as well, but will likely remain below advisory
levels.

The Sundowners may be strong enough to kick off an eddy with
further inland extent (possibly creeping into some lower coastal
valleys) of night to morning low clouds and fog Wednesday and
Thursday in particular. This could stymie warming trends west of
the mountains in Los Angeles and Ventura County during this time
frame. Alternatively, parts of the Santa Barbara South Coast may
warm and be mostly cloud free thanks to the downsloping wind.

West to southwest flow aloft through the period will keep any
monsoon moisture well to the east of the region.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12/117 PM.

Moderate forecast confidence in the extended as southwest
California will fall between competing features of a trough along
the West Coast and a moderate Four Corners Ridge to the east. The
trough will likely win out over the weekend with a slight cool
down from midweek temperatures. Early next week the ridge is
favored (60-70 percent chance) to assert greater influence with a
modest warming trend the most likely outcome. There is a small
(5-10 percent chance) that the ridge will build in a favorable
orientation for monsoon moisture to nose back into southern
California, but a majority of the moisture and any associated
thunderstorm risk would likely remain to the east of Los Angeles
County, even in this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0133Z.

At 0007Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at about 2300 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in the 00Z TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD,
and KWJF.

Moderate to low confidence in the remaining 00Z TAFs. Recent
satellite imagery shows widespread rapid clearing of the marine
layer so many coastal sites may see later arrival times than
forecast, or could even remain clear. There is a 20% chance of
LIFR conds at KSMX 10Z-17Z Tue.

KLAX...Moderate to low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Return of cigs
tonight could be closer to 12Z. High confidence in no significant
east wind component.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds thru the
period.

&&

.MARINE...12/144 PM.

For the outer waters, current forecast looks on track with Small
Craft Advisory level winds expected at least through Wednesday
night. There is a 40% chance of SCA wind gusts at times continuing
Thursday through Saturday night as well. There is also a 20%-30%
chance of gale force wind gusts at times Thursday through Friday.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, there is a 50% chance of
SCA level winds during the afternoon into evening hours through
Wednesday night. There is then a 30%-40% chance of these winds
afternoons and evenings Thursday trough Saturday night.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, there is a
40%-50% chance of SCA wind gusts for the western Santa Barbara
Channel during the afternoon into late evening hours through
Thursday. Otherwise, conds will remain below SCA levels over the
southern inner waters through Saturday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox