608
FXUS66 KLOX 141026
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
326 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/228 AM.

Temperatures will remain below to near normal though next weekend,
with overnight to morning low clouds and fog across coastal areas
at times. Over the next few days, gusty winds are likely across
the Santa Barbara southwestern coast and the Antelope Valley
during the evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/325 AM.

A 593 dam upper high currently to the SW of LA will slowly slide
to the east over the next three days eventually ending up in NM.
Hgts will oscillate between 592 and 594 dam. There will be weak
onshore flow to the east each morning turning moderate in the
afternoon. There will be weak offshore flow from the north in the
morning, but weak onshore flow to the north in the afternoons.

The marine layer will remain under 1000 ft due to the high hgts
overhead. Due to the lack of an eddy, the offshore push from the
north and only weak early morning onshore flow to the east the
marine layer stratus will have a difficult time forming. Aside
from the west coast of SBA county most coastal areas will be
stratus free.

Most areas will see slight warming each day as hgts rise slightly
as the high passes to the south. The only notable exception will
occur Friday along the SBA south coast and the VTA csts/vlys due
to a stronger onshore push to the east in the afternoon. By
Friday max temps will be a few degrees either side of normal with
70s at the beaches, 80 across the inland coastal area and 90s in
the vlys.

3 to 4 mb N to S pressure gradients across SBA county tonight and
Thursday night will produce Sundowner winds across the SBA South
Coast. Wind advisories are likely across the western portion of
the south coast with 35 to 50 mph gusts. The gusts will be weaker
across the eastern portion where gusts will likely reach 25 to
35 mph. Downsloping compressional heating will keep elevated
temperatures across the area through much of the evening.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/324 AM.

Good confidence in the weekend fcst. All deterministic and
ensemble solutions show Srn CA stuck in between a large high
pressure area centered over TX and a cool (for this time of year)
upper low west of Portland OR. There will be dry SW flow over the
area which will eliminate the threat of monsoon TSTMs. Hgts will
lower a few dam to about 590 dam and onshore flow will increase.
There may be an increase in the morning coastal stratus but this
is not a for sure thing. Max temps will drop 2 to 4 degrees on
Saturday and change little on Sunday.

Not the best agreement in mdls for the Monday Tuesday forecast.
The GFS continues the weekend pattern and indicates little day to
day change. The EC on the other hand moves the upper high closer
to the state kicking off a warming trend. The ensembles favor the
warmer the EC solution and the forecast calls for 2 to 4 degrees
of warming each day. The EC solution also opens the door for some
monsoon moisture. Right now the TSTM threat is to the S and E of
LA county but this could change as the forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0610Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at about 2100 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and
KWJF.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. There is a 25 percent chc of
IFR cigs at sites with no cigs fcst and the same 25 percent chc of
no cigs at sites with cigs fcst. If cigs do arrive the timing
could be off by +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of no
low clouds. If low clouds do occur they could arrive as early as
09Z or as late as 13Z. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...13/849 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas expected
through at least Sunday night. There is a 30-50% chance of low
end gale force wind gusts in the afternoon thru late night hours
Wednesday thru Friday (with the highest chances on Thursday), and
a 10% chance Saturday and Sunday.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. SCA level winds and seas are likely (60-70%
chance) much of the time Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
night. There is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds and seas in the
afternoon thru evening hours on Friday, and a 30-40% chance
Saturday and Sunday Sunday.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA
level wind gusts for the western Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoon into late evening hours through Thursday, and a 20-30%
chance of SCA level winds Saturday and Sunday in the afternoon to
evening hours. Otherwise, conds will remain below SCA levels over
the southern inner waters through Sunday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...KL/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox