657
FXUS66 KLOX 141125
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
425 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/228 AM.

Temperatures will remain below to near normal though next weekend,
with overnight to morning low clouds and fog across coastal areas
at times. Over the next few days, gusty winds are likely across
the Santa Barbara southwestern coast and the Antelope Valley
during the evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/325 AM.

A 593 dam upper high currently to the SW of LA will slowly slide
to the east over the next three days eventually ending up in NM.
Hgts will oscillate between 592 and 594 dam. There will be weak
onshore flow to the east each morning turning moderate in the
afternoon. There will be weak offshore flow from the north in the
morning, but weak onshore flow to the north in the afternoons.

The marine layer will remain under 1000 ft due to the high hgts
overhead. Due to the lack of an eddy, the offshore push from the
north and only weak early morning onshore flow to the east the
marine layer stratus will have a difficult time forming. Aside
from the west coast of SBA county most coastal areas will be
stratus free.

Most areas will see slight warming each day as hgts rise slightly
as the high passes to the south. The only notable exception will
occur Friday along the SBA south coast and the VTA csts/vlys due
to a stronger onshore push to the east in the afternoon. By
Friday max temps will be a few degrees either side of normal with
70s at the beaches, 80 across the inland coastal area and 90s in
the vlys.

3 to 4 mb N to S pressure gradients across SBA county tonight and
Thursday night will produce Sundowner winds across the SBA South
Coast. Wind advisories are likely across the western portion of
the south coast with 35 to 50 mph gusts. The gusts will be weaker
across the eastern portion where gusts will likely reach 25 to
35 mph. Downsloping compressional heating will keep elevated
temperatures across the area through much of the evening.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/324 AM.

Good confidence in the weekend fcst. All deterministic and
ensemble solutions show Srn CA stuck in between a large high
pressure area centered over TX and a cool (for this time of year)
upper low west of Portland OR. There will be dry SW flow over the
area which will eliminate the threat of monsoon TSTMs. Hgts will
lower a few dam to about 590 dam and onshore flow will increase.
There may be an increase in the morning coastal stratus but this
is not a for sure thing. Max temps will drop 2 to 4 degrees on
Saturday and change little on Sunday.

Not the best agreement in mdls for the Monday Tuesday forecast.
The GFS continues the weekend pattern and indicates little day to
day change. The EC on the other hand moves the upper high closer
to the state kicking off a warming trend. The ensembles favor the
warmer the EC solution and the forecast calls for 2 to 4 degrees
of warming each day. The EC solution also opens the door for some
monsoon moisture. Right now the TSTM threat is to the S and E of
LA county but this could change as the forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1125Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 500 ft deep. The top
of the inversion was at about 3100 ft with a temperature of 24 C.

Very High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and
KWJF.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Low clouds were confined to
southern portions of the Central Coast, with patchy low clouds in
southern Ventura County. Most TAF sites will likely have VFR
conds this morning, with the best chance of cigs with LIFR to
VLIFR conds at KSMX and KOXR

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
LIFR cigs between 13Z and 16Z this morning. There is a 25 percent
chance of conds remaining clear tonight/Thu morning. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...14/408 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to increase to
low end gale force this afternoon (60-70% chance), and continue
at times through late Thu night. Winds will be strongest during
the late afternoon through late evening hours. SCA level winds are
expected (60% chance) from late Thu night thru late Sun night.

For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in current
forecast. SCA level winds and seas are likely (60% chance) much of
the time this afternoon through Thursday night. When winds drop
below SCA levels tonight/Thu morning, seas will likely remain at
SCA levels. There is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds and seas
in the afternoon thru evening hours Fri thru Sun.

For the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence
in current forecast. SCA level winds are likely across the western
Santa Barbara Channel during this afternoon thru late tonight,
and again during the late afternoon thru late night hours Thu.
There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds there during the
afternoon/eve hours Fri thru Sun. Otherwise, conds will remain
below SCA levels over the southern inner waters thru Sun night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KL/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox