


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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569 FXUS66 KLOX 031031 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 331 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...03/302 AM. Near normal weather conditions are anticipated through this weekend with continued night to morning low clouds and fog near the coast. The first significant widespread heatwave of the summer is possible next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/325 AM. Mild weather with a very slight warming trend each day is expected through the weekend. Continued warm temperatures are forecast for inland areas, with cooler conditions near the coasts. Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s near the coast, 80s coastal valleys and 90s lower mountains to the interior. Temperatures will generally be just below normal for much of the region, and within a couple degrees of normal across the LA Basin. Overnight to morning marine layer clouds and fog will continue each day extending from the beaches into the coastal valleys. Areas of dense fog will be possible by the weekend Far interior areas will continue to be dry during the day with breezy onshore winds during the afternoons and evenings, as is typical for this time of year. Additionally northerly Sundowner winds are likely to return to southwest Santa Barbara County this Friday night and persist through at least the weekend. Gusts of 25 to 45 mph will be common across the typically windy areas, with chances for local gusts of 50 mph. These downsloping winds may result in areas of fire weather concerns for the Santa Ynez Range and portion of the adjacent coast. The Madre Fire is currently burning in southeast San Luis Obispo County and creating a significant amount of smoke for the Cuyama Valley. Upper level smoke is currently drifting far south from its origin over Santa Barbara County and western portions of Ventura County. Smokey skies may be visible from portions of LA County today, though it is likely to stay elevated well above the surface. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/121 PM. A slight warming trend is likely Sunday into Monday with temperatures returning to or just above normal with night to morning low clouds gradually retreating closer to the coast. Continued above normal confidence in a significant warm up by early next week as all guidance has some flavor of a strong ridge building into the region from the east. Moderate to high heat impacts are likely from the coastal valleys to interior as early as Tuesday and likely Wednesday into Thursday with triple digit (100s) heat. Lower confidence on the extent of the heat closer to the coast. Monsoon moisture may push into the region by the middle of next week and combined with moderate offshore trends from the north could increase heat concerns closer to the coast as monsoon moisture tends to disrupt the cooling effects of the marine layer. Heatwaves combined with instability have supported large wildland fires in the past, so increased fire activity is possible during this period. There is a small (10 percent chance) of thunderstorms focused across the mountains and deserts as early as Tuesday for Los Angeles/Ventura Counties, extending across the remaining interior areas Wednesday into Thursday or Friday. Dry lightning fire starts, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain are potential monsoon thunderstorm hazards. A slow cool down is possible heading into next weekend, however continued heat impacts are likely, especially away from the coast. && .AVIATION...03/0714Z. At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4500 feet with a temperature of 23 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Minimum flight cat may be off by one and flight categories changes off by 2 hours. Duration of low visibility is uncertain. KBUR, KVNY, and KPRB: there is a 20-40 percent chance that no cigs will form. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight category changes may be off by up to 2 hours and flight categories off by 1 at times. Moderate to high confidence in any east wind component remaining below 6 kts between 09Z and 16Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of no low clouds forming tonight. && .MARINE...03/236 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer Waters much of the time through the 4th of July Weekend. SCA winds are also likely each afternoon and evening for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday through the weekend, with a 30% chance this afternoon through evening. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible through Sunday, with best chances around the western Channel Islands and in the northern Outer Waters Friday afternoon and evening (30% chance). Seas will build to 8 to 10 feet at times through the weekend. Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate (30-40%) chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening Friday through the weekend across the Santa Barbara Channel (strongest winds focused in the western portions). Local gusts to 20 kts may occur near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time. Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through this weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 11 AM PDT this morning through Saturday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Munroe AVIATION...Phillips/Schoenfeld MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox