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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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010 FXUS66 KLOX 131203 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 503 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...13/229 AM. The long-lasting heatwave will across the mountains and interior areas will end today as the high pressure system weakens and pushes to the east. There will be some cooling each day through the middle of next week. In the meantime, temperatures inland will remain above normal. Another warming trend will develop later next week and continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...13/318 AM. A broad lobe of PVA is currently transitioning over the area. Its has produced some showers (although probably more virga than rain) and one small TSTM over Calabasas. The clouds associated with this PVA are obscuring the marine layer which seems to be much less extensive than ydy. This despite decent onshore trends and is likely the result of no eddy development. A large lobe of NVA is riding in on the tails of the PVA and in nicely evident on Satellite. This NVA should decrease the chc of TSTMs as well as the cloud cover. Clearing skies will allow for instability to develop late this morning and afternoon over the interior and another slgt chc (~20 percent) of showers and/or TSTMs will develop there. The showers will be quite high based and there is threat of downbursts and dry lightning. One last day of heat for the interior which despite a few degrees of cooling will still reach dangerously high values. The reduced marine layer will allow the coasts and vlys to rebound from the big cool down ydy due to the eddy. The upper high remains near the four corners area on Sunday. Hgts fall enough to bring a degree or 2 of cooling to the area. The onshore gradients do not change much and the low cloud pattern should be similar today. Not totally out of the woods as far as convection is concerned but it looks like all of the moisture will be around 600mb so a non zero but less than 12 percent chc of a shower in the afternoon more likely just a bunch of build ups. Max temps will only be 4 to 6 degrees above normal and near normal across the coasts and vlys. On Monday the east Pac trof pushes close enough to the coast to switch the flow the SW which will dry things out and eliminate the convective threat. Otherwise a pretty dull day with coastal low clouds in the morning and otherwise clear skies. Max temps will be similar to Sunday`s. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...13/337 AM. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the next 7 as the east Pac trof makes it`s closest approach to the coast. Hgts fall to about 592 dam and the onshore flow increases to the highest value of the week. Max temps will fall another couple of degrees. Most max temps will end up 2 to 4 degree blo normal save for the Antelope Vly which will remain 2 or 3 degrees above normal. The the upper high will build back to the west and hgts will increase and temps will rise. Look for a couple of degrees of warming each day Wed through Saturday. Onshore flow will continue and there will be night through morning low clouds across the coasts. Barring an unforeseen eddy the vlys will remain cloud free. The marine layer will keep the coasts cooler but the vlys will be about 5 degrees above normal by Saturday and the interior will be about 10 degrees. Right now it looks like the monsoon will keep to the east but this could change. && .AVIATION...13/0713Z. At 0523Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 30 deg C. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. For these sites, there is a 10% chance for thunderstorms thru 14Z and a 20% chance 14Z-03Z. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. There is a 30% chance of LIFR cigs and IFR vis 11Z-15Z. Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Vis will likely vary frequently through 15Z. Cig hgts may be off by +/- 300 ft. VFR transition may be off by +/- 2hours. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of Cigs remaining AOA OVC005. There is a 30 percent chc that Vis will remain AOA 3SM. If Vis does drop below 3SM it will likely vary frequently between 1SM and 3SM. Low clouds may arrive as late as 07Z tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of 2SM BR OVC004 conds 11Z-15Z. && .MARINE...13/502 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are not expected through the weekend. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds across the Outer Waters starting Monday afternoon through the week. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel during each afternoon through overnight hours beginning Monday through the week. A long period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and may lead to a chance for elevated surf conditions and high rip current potential through Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible through mid morning this morning. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of producing locally gale force winds, rough seas, and dangerous lightning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-343>345-353-376>379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from 9 AM PDT this morning through this evening for zones 342>345-348-351>353-376>383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox