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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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830 FXUS66 KLOX 072124 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 224 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...07/224 PM. A long-lasting and extreme heatwave will continue across the mountains and interior areas through much of the coming week with a high risk for dangerous heat illness and fast-growing fires. Temperatures across coast and valleys have returned to normal levels for now, however a warming trend is expected there through the week with increasing risk of heat issues in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/156 PM. An interesting day of temperatures across southwest California. A vast majority of the area between SLO and LA Counties cooled since Saturday. Most notably the areas around the Santa Clarita Valley and the southern Salinas Valley where highs have been 15-20 degrees cooler. Cooling elsewhere was much more moderate but noticeable. On the other hand much of LA Basin and the southern portion of the Central Coast warmed by 3-6 degrees, likely a result of earlier clearing of the low clouds. For most areas except the far interior, high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to warm at least a few degrees each day, mostly due to weakening onshore flow and the return of some northerly flow to southern Santa Barbara County and parts of the northern mountains. Strong high pressure aloft will remain in place through most of the week, keeping temperatures very hot across the deserts and other far interior areas like the interior SLO County and the mountains. The main change coming the next few days is the return of weakening onshore flow which is the biggest factor for warming west of the mountains. Except this time models are not showing quite as much super hot air in the lower levels so this round of heating for the valleys and coast will not be as extreme as before, but still getting close to around 107 in the warmest areas, such as the western San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley. May need another round of excessive heat warnings or heat advisories by Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday or Thursday. As the onshore flow weakens over the next few days the marine layer will be clearing sooner, but may still hug the coastline through the afternoon, especially LA/Ventura Counties. Developing northerly flow along the Central Coast and southern Santa Barbara County will likely limit or possibly eliminate the stratus in those areas. Increasing north winds Tuesday and Wednesday evenings in southern Santa Barbara County and parts of the Santa Lucias may be strong enough for some wind advisories. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/222 PM. This very lengthy period of strong high pressure aloft only very slowly weakens later this week into next weekend and deciding which day to end the current slate of seemingly endless Excessive Heat Warnings across the interior will be decided after coordination with surrounding offices. For now have extended the warnings there through Thursday which is about when high temperatures start to reach or drop slightly below 110, but could certainly see a case for going another day or two beyond that with highs still 10-15 degrees above normal. Similar situation for the valleys. There are no watches or warnings currently in effect but the latest ensemble guidance is leaning warmer and likely to stay 10-15 degrees above normal through Thursday. A slow cooling trend is expected to continue into next weekend, however triple digit heat is possible in the valleys even into next Sunday. Coastal areas will 2-5 degrees above normal Thursday, then basically near normal next weekend with typical night and morning low clouds and fog expected. Not really seeing any clear signals of monsoon flow yet. && .AVIATION...07/1800Z. At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4700 feet with a temperature of 31 deg C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. Elsewhere, expect low clouds to scatter out or clear by late morning for KCMA, and early this afternoon for KOXR and KSBA. Expect widespread low clouds and fog tonight in all coastal areas, and in portions of the Santa Ynez and San Gabriel Valleys with mostly LIFR to VLIFR conds expected. KBUR has a 20% chance of low clouds late tonight into early Mon morning. Fires may lead to periods of smoke at some terminals today, especially KSBA and north. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs will not arrive tonight until 06Z or later. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining under 5 kts. KBUR...Generally high confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR cigs 10Z-15Z tonight and Mon morning. && .MARINE...07/127 PM. In the Outer Waters, winds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Mon morning. In the two northern zone (PZZ670/673), SCA conds are likely (70% chance) Mon afternoon/evening, with a 40% chance of SCA conds at times Tue thru Thu night. In the southern zone (PZZ676), SCA conds are not expected through Tue morning. For all of the outer waters there is a 40% chance of SCA levels winds Tue afternoon thru Thu night, mainly during the late afternoon thru late night hours. Conds should be below SCA levels Fri and Fri night. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/evening hours Mon and Tue, otherwise SCA conds are not expected thru Fri night. In the inner waters S of Pt Conception, SCA conditions are not expected thru Fri night. The possible exception is in western portions from Santa Cruz Island to the SBA County south coast from Pt. Conception to Refugio State Beach, where there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Tue thru Thu. && .BEACHES...07/127 PM. A moderately sized south swell with a 14 to 15 second period will continue to affect the coastal waters thru this evening. This will produce elevated surf of 4 to 6 ft on beaches exposed to southerly swell, especially the L.A./VTU County beaches. Significant wave energy and elevated surf will bring at threat of powerful and dangerous rip currents. This is especially the case for the south-facing beaches of L.A./VTU Counties, where a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning now in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-343>345-351>353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 378-381. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Sirard MARINE...Sirard BEACHES...DB/Sirard SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox