066
FXUS66 KLOX 161015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...16/231 AM.

Skies will be clear except for morning low clouds across the
coasts. It will be cooler today, but a warming trend will start
Wednesday which will lead to the possibility of extreme heat
across the interior by the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...16/302 AM.

Low clouds are slow to form this morning despite onshore trends.
Judging by current satellite trends it looks like that low clouds
will only cover the LA county coasts and western SBA county in the
morning. Look for sunny skies everywhere in the afternoon. Much
less moisture and instability are forecast this afternoon and
while there may be some afternoon build ups over the mtns showers
are not expected. Today will be the coolest of the next 7 as a
trof pushes closer to the west coast. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of
cooler for most areas and max temps 2 to 4 degrees blo normal. The
Antelope Vly will be the exception with max temps 2 to 4 degrees
above normal.

Look for a little better stratus coverage tonight as a mass of low
clouds moves closer to the area. Still low clouds may not develop
until well past midnight. There will be slightly stronger
sundowner focused across the western portion of the SBA south
coast with a few gusts reaching advisory criteria. This northerly
flow will keep the SBA south coast stratus free.

The upper high will shift back to the west and take up position
near the four corners. This will kick off another warming trend.
Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day. By Thursday coastal
temps will be in the 70s (with 80s further inland), the vlys will
mostly be in the 90s and the lower elevations of the mtns along
with the interior will see max temps from 100 to 105 degrees.

Wednesday night`s Sundowner may be a little stronger and wind
advisories may be needed across the western portions of the SBA
south coast.

Moderate the strong onshore flow to the east will occur through
the period and night through morning low cloud pattern will
continue but the higher hgts will likely keep the marine layer
shallow enough to prevent any stratus from reaching the vlys
(except for the Santa Ynez Vly).

No monsoon flow is indicated but with the high over the four
corners area it is possible that some unforecast moisture could
sneak in and this will be monitored.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/312 AM.

Dangerous heat levels are possible Friday through at least Monday as
the upper high moves over NV (bring 596 dam hgts to Srn CA) and
onshore flow weakens. Like the last couple heat waves, this one
will again focus across the interior areas, including the Antelope
Valley, lower elevation mountain areas and the far interiors of
SLO/SBA counties. Max temps will warm to 8-12 degrees above
normal. Temperatures reaching 110 or higher are possible (40%
chance). Heat advisories are likely starting Friday for some
interior area and Excessive Heat warnings for the Antelope Vly and
Heat advisories for the rest of the interior are growing more and
more likely. Warmer coastal valleys could reach 105. Like the last
heat event the coastal areas will be moderated by the cool ocean
breezes with afternoon highs upper 70s and 80s.

The upper high will be a little too far to the west to bring in
monsoon moisture and the convective threat appears to be minimal.

Looking beyond the 7 day forecast...there does not seem to be any
signal that the inland heat will let up much at all during the
week of the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0639Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4400 feet with a temperature of 26 deg C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPRB, KPMD, and
KWJF.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs with a 40 percent chc of no cigs at
sites with cigs fcst and vice versa. If cigs do arrive the
arrival timing could be off by as much a 3 hours.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no
cigs. If cigs do form arrival time could be any time between 09Z
and 13Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/314 AM.

Across the outer waters, winds will likely remain just below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the southern two zones
south of Point Sal (PZZ673/676) early this morning. Then, winds
will restrengthen to SCA levels by this afternoon and continue
through Wednesday across the southern waters, with a 30% chance
of reaching SCA levels across the waters north of Point Sal
(PZZ670) this afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, there is a
60-80% chance of SCA winds across the entire outer waters and
likely continue through the entire weekend. Additionally, seas are
expected to increase to SCA levels over the weekend, with a low
(but present) risk for Gale Force Wind gusts across the entire
outer waters at some point over the weekend.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal (Zone PZZ645), there is a 30-50%
chance of SCA conditions each afternoon/evening Wednesday through at
least Saturday.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, winds are expected to
strengthen to SCA levels during the afternoon/evening hours today
and Wednesday across the western portion of the Santa Barbara
Channel and near the Channel Islands. There is a 20-40% chance of
SCA winds in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through at
least Saturday night. SCA conds are not expected through Saturday
morning for the inner waters south of the Channel Islands (Zone
PZZ655), with a 20-30% chance of SCA winds during the
afternoon/evening hours on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...16/216 AM.

A series of Southern Hemispheric storms will send a long-period,
South to Southwest swell (around 18-second wave periods) to the
Southern California coastal waters through the middle of this
week. Wave periods will gradually shorten to around 15 seconds by
late week. This S to SW long-period swell will bring an extended
period of elevated surf -- surf heights of 4-6 feet -- along with
powerful and dangerous rip currents (over 80% chance) through
Thursday. The area of greatest concern for these impacts will be
across beaches with highest exposure to S to SW swell directions
-- especially across the L.A. and Ventura County beaches. These
 factors warrant the issuance of a Beach Hazards Statement for the
 L.A. and Ventura County beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 9 AM PDT this morning
      through Thursday evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lund
BEACHES...Phillips/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox