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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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940 FXUS63 KLOT 142352 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 652 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional clusters of storms are expected through this evening, with continued threats for severe weather and flash flooding. - Hot and very humid on Monday with heat indices of 100-110F and a Heat Advisory likely needed for at least portions of the area. - Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected late day Monday-Monday night (area wide) and on Tuesday (mainly I-55 and southeast) with continued severe and flash flood threats. - The pattern finally breaks Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return of tranquil conditions late Wednesday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Through Monday Night: Through Tonight: A complex convective scenario will unfold later this afternoon through the evening as a well defined MCV from overnight severe convection tracks across the region. In the near term, widely scattered convection continues to percolate across portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. However, in a still less favorable thermodynamic and marginal deep layer wind shear environment, these showers and isolated thunderstorms have thus far (thankfully) not shown any signs of intensification. Should this continue to be the case, the main threats through about 5 PM CDT with this activity will be localized lightning strikes and downpours. The presence of the MCV near the MS River moving into the region during peak heating and large instability reservoir certainly adds to concern for a scattered severe weather threat, along with flash flooding. Given the current location of the MCV, suspect that scattered thunderstorms will initiate over the northwest CWA as early as 4-6 PM. Bumped up PoPs to likely (~60-70%/numerous storms type coverage) this evening. Deep layer shear will be on the increase (up to 35 kt if not more), so initial storm mode may be mixed supercellular and multi-cellular clusters. There should be a tendency for cold pool development and transition to bowing segments with time this evening, which should eventually result in more progressive storm motions than on Saturday night. Hazards wise, initial supercells may be capable of all hazards, though extent of any tornado threat would be driven by how much low-level shear is increased by the enhanced flow aloft associated with the MCV, as LCLs will certainly low enough. Despite the high moisture and freezing levels, initial supercells will also be capable of producing large hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall greatest threat, especially into the evening should be for pockets of damaging winds. With the LLJ ramping up in concert with MCV flow enhancement, may also need to monitor for mesovortex and QLCS tornado development. Finally, last but not least, given the significant flooding in Rockford and nearby across far northern Illinois last night, plus very high moisture, flash flooding continues to be a noteworthy concern. We issued a new Flood Watch for all of our counties except Livingston, Ford, Iroquois, Newton, Jasper, and Benton. The potential for significant flooding may be somewhat less if propagation tied to cold pools and the progression of the MCV clears deep convection east of our area quicker, by midnight or a bit after. The faster propagation may be most favored once the organized clusters of storms/possible MCS reach our far southern CWA counties. With the sandy soils of the Kankakee Valley a bit less vulnerable to flash flooding and the above in mind, opted to leave out our far southern counties, but can`t rule out needing to extend the watch this evening. Monday-Monday Night: Potentially dangerous heat and humidity will be followed by yet another round of thunderstorms in the late afternoon through the evening and early overnight. This round will be accompanied by a threat for significant severe weather (damaging winds and tornadoes) and flash flooding. There`s enough of a signal across the guidance for a sufficiently long lull in convective activity on Monday for the heat and humidity to perform closer to expectations. Wouldn`t say confidence is high in no "surprises", but that the footprint of any thunderstorms prior to mid afternoon to be low enough to not substantially affect the cloud cover, temperatures, and dew point temperatures. With low 20s Celsius 850 mb temps and mid- upper 20s C 925 mb temps, expecting highs in the lower to locally mid 90s, likely warmest over the heart of the Chicago urban heat island. Oppressive dew points well into the 70s (a touch lower over Chicago) and possibly approaching 80F over farming areas will result in heat indices of 100-110F. Elected to not issue a Heat Advisory with this forecast package, but expecting we will need one for a large swath of the CWA, assuming no major surprises are in the offing. A synoptically evident severe and flash flooding threat is then in store for the late afternoon through the evening, and possibly early overnight hours. A coherent robust mid-level short-wave and speed max will intercept the strongly unstable environment (up to 3-5k J/kg of MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates) and erode lingering capping after 21z. The mid-level speed max and enhanced low- level flow will generate the strongest deep layer and low-level wind shear profiles of this stretch, at up to 50 kt and 30-35 kt, respectively. In west- northwest flow aloft, there is commonly sufficient veering with height for initial supercell mode or mixed supercell and multi- cellular clusters in these setups. There again should be a transition to a linear QLCS or bowing segment mode with time, though specific details on this are (needless to say) uncertain. With the above in mind, SPC`s level 3 of 5 (Enhanced Risk) severe threat appears quite reasonable pattern recognition wise. The most apparent severe threat is damaging wind gusts, with a distinct potential for destructive 70-80 mph gusts. This will particularly be the case assuming relatively quick transition to a more linear mode (not always a sure thing). Whether in supercell or QLCS mode, tornadoes will also be a threat given favorable low level shear/helicity and LCL heights, drawing a level 2 of 5 (5% probs) risk from the SPC. Finally, severe hail may be somewhat of a lesser threat due to messy to linear storm modes, very moist profiles, and high freezing levels, though certainly can`t be ruled out. Flash flooding will once again be a notable threat due to the antecedent very wet conditions, and 150-200% of normal PWATs approaching or exceeding 2" in spots. It appears likely we`ll need another Flood Watch for flash flooding for much of if not the entire area. Also enhancing the threat will be the parallel orientation of the deep layer wind shear vector (westerly) to west to east oriented convective clusters. Exactly how long the severe and flash flooding threat will last into Monday night is a bit uncertain, though felt comfortable with the evening high end likely to categorical PoPs (70-80+%). After midnight, it`s possible the threat for additional storms ends more quickly than implied in the gridded forecast. Stepped down PoPs slightly and thunder wording to chance overnight to account for the possibility of an earlier end time. Castro Tuesday through Sunday: Tuesday-Tuesday Night: Showers and storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning, mainly across the southern portion of the CWA. A cold front passage Tuesday morning will keep high temperatures in the mid-80s with onshore flow limiting them to the upper 70s near the lake. This cold front will be draped across or just south of the southern portion of the CWA Tuesday afternoon. With 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE expected to build along the frontal boundary and steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km), thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon. These storms should be limited in extent to the far southern/southeastern portion of the CWA (southeast of I-55) before exiting to the south and southeast. These storms pose a threat of strong winds and hail. Carothers Wednesday and beyond... We`ll eventually get into a break from this active stretch towards the end of the week. However, based on the incoming guidance, can`t entirely rule out a few showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon as a trailing shortwave speeds across the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings suggest there will be a little lingering boundary layer moisture, and perhaps sufficient destabilization to realize some modest lingering MLCAPE. The blended guidance showing low-end chance PoPs east of about I-55/57 seem reasonable at this range as a result. If storms do manage to fire within sufficient lingering low-level moisture, sufficient shear exists to yield a low-end risk for a few stronger/more organized cores. As it stands right now, Thursday through the upcoming weekend are looking nice and quiet as sprawling high pressure begins to build over the region. In the process of building this high, however, breezy northerly winds down the lake may yield a brief period of dangerous swimming conditions/rip currents Wednesday night into Thursday. Other than that, however, conditions look outstanding into the weekend with comfortable dewpoints, near to below-normal temperatures, and daily lake cooling. Carlaw && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Forecast concerns include... Thunderstorms this evening and again Monday evening. Chance of fog overnight/early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are developing across eastern IA and far northwest IL early this evening and this activity will continue developing east into northern IL and then shift southeast across the entire area through the late evening. Some of the storms may be severe with strong/erratic winds. Torrential rainfall will also be possible with ifr/lifr vis/cigs. Models are in good agreement that once this activity moves southeast of the terminals in the early overnight hours, dry weather is expected through early/mid Monday afternoon. Another round of strong/ severe thunderstorms is expected Monday evening. Models also are in good agreement with a later timing, mainly Monday evening. Given the consistency, opted to change current prob mention to tempo and adjusted timing later. Similar to tonight, strong/ erratic winds and torrential rainfall will be possible with the storms Monday evening. Winds outside of thunderstorms are expected to remain generally southwesterly. There may be a period of gusts into the 20-25kt range mid/late Monday afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible overnight into early Monday morning. Low confidence for how widespread the fog may become and how low the visibilities may drop. For now, have added tempo mention at RFD/DPA. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for INZ001-INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago