726
FXUS63 KLMK 161111
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Some locally heavy
    rainfall is possible, but the risk for severe weather is low.

*   Unsettled weather is likely Saturday and Sunday with scattered
    showers and thunderstorm being possible each afternoon/evening.
    Strong to severe storms with gusty winds will be possible
    Saturday afternoon and evening.

*   Dry weather is expected for much of next week, with well below
    normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A stacked low, embedded in an upper trough, continues to work its
way through the Midwest on it way towards the Great Lakes. It is
expected to make it to the Lake Michigan/Michigan area by Saturday
morning. As the system moves along this path, multiple weak
shortwaves will work through the Lower Ohio Valley, helping to
initiate convection across the region, but with instability and deep
layer shear continuing to be marginal, severe weather isn`t expected.

Precipitable water values will range between 1.7" to over 2" over
the CWA as the system`s surface low puts pressure on a surface high
centered over the Carolinas. This will drive gusty (20-25 mph)
southwest winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky as it
continues to funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area, but later
this evening as the system slides eastward, drier west to northwest
flow over the CWA will cause precipitable water values to begin
falling below 1.5", leading to a mostly dry night over the CWA.

This morning, we are expecting an increase in showers and
thunderstorms across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as we
head through the morning hours. With precipitable water values
fairly high, we could see some heavy rain rates which could cause
some ponding of water in low areas and on area roadways, but given
the progressive nature of the convection, not expecting widespread
flooding.

This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
more isolated and scattered and not so widespread as sunshine
becomes more likely later in the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures will climb back into the 80s.

Early tonight, any remaining showers are expected to fade quickly as
the night remains mostly dry. Easing southwest winds with partly
cloudy skies will keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A cold front to our northwest at 12Z Saturday will advance to the
Ohio River by evening and into Kentucky Saturday night. Upstairs a
5H low will be spinning over Michigan with small ripples circulating
around it. These features will interact with with a moist and
unstable atmosphere to produce showers and storms. The best chance
for strong to severe storms will come late Saturday afternoon into
the evening hours with CAPE around 1500 J/kg, bulk shear around
30kt, and precipitable water values of 1.5-2". High freezing heights
and weak low level SRH suggest gusty winds, small hail, and locally
heavy downpours will be the main threats. This is in agreement with
the CSU-MLP hazards outlook and the SPC Day 2.

Sunday and Sunday night the upper low over Michigan will open up
into a trough as it pushes east into the northern Appalachians,
while the Saturday cold front likely settles just off to our south
and east. While scattered showers and garden variety thunderstorms
may develop around peak heating, severe storms are not expected.

A meridional upper pattern will dominate the Monday - Thursday time
period with a strong upper ridge reaching from the Prairie Provinces
through the Great Plains to northern Mexico, bookended by upper
troughs over the Pacific Northwest and southeast Canada. At the
surface high pressure will slowly advance from Ontario through the
Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic Coast. Other than perhaps a few
lingering showers and storms along and east of US 127 on Monday,
this will result in dry weather for southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. Dew points Tuesday afternoon may briefly touch the
upper 40s in the Blue Grass, with lower 50s elsewhere, under sunny
skies and temperatures peaking around 80.

Temperatures will moderate a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday as
we get into some return flow behind the East Coast high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 711 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Convection is continuing to build in waves across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. The heaviest and most widespread
showers and thunderstorms have remained north of the region in
central Indiana. Timing is going continue to be a little tricky, so
TAF amendments may be required as impacts to area TAF sites become
more likely. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR. Some reductions in
visibilities could occur during periods of heavy rainfall, but these
periods aren`t expected to last long. Winds during the afternoon and
evening hours are expected to gust to around 20 knots in most
places.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KDW