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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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680 FXUS63 KLMK 090209 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1009 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * The remnants of Beryl will move into the region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall, isolated damaging wind gusts, and brief tornadoes possible. * Warmer temperatures return by late week and continue into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 An earlier area of convection with a few isolated thunderstorms has dissipated to an area of remaining sprinkles, currently near the Ohio River. The rest of the night should be fairly quiet. As we near sunrise, a band of convection from Tropical Depression Beryl will begin working north through Kentucky, but most of this activity will likely remain over western Kentucky, west of the CWA. Temperatures had to be bumped down in areas that saw earlier rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Warm and muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours as moisture and clouds associated with Tropical Cyclone Beryl stream into the region. A few isolated showers/storms could sneak into our western counties this evening depending on how storms evolve over western Kentucky this afternoon; otherwise, anticipating quiet and mostly dry conditions overnight. By dawn tomorrow, Beryl will be across southern Arkansas and will continue its jog to the northeast. The best corridor for moisture/lift will generally be across Arkansas into central Indiana as Beryl makes its trek toward us, so while widespread rain is not likely for southern IN and central KY, we do anticipate bands/waves of rain showers with embedded storms to swing through our region during the day Tuesday. 12z SPC HREF guidance indicates that we should gradually destabilize through the day as Beryl approaches, with mean SBCAPE values ranging from 1,000-2,000 J/KG. Some of the higher-end instability values may be overestimated as mid/high level clouds will limit surface heating and also result in poor mid-level lapse rates... but shear/helicity will gradually increase through the day as Beryl approaches, and even with marginal amounts of instability we could see storm organization and the potential for severe weather. Main severe weather threat will be sporadic damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes within the strongest convection given the elongated, clockwise looping hodograph. Best window for severe weather across southern IN and central KY will be from 2pm EDT through midnight EDT. Hydro concerns aren`t particularly high, but there will be some localized issues we`ll need to keep an eye on. High freezing levels and a very moist atmosphere (PWATs >2") will support torrential downpours in most of the showers and storms. Fortunately, most of our activity will come in waves and likely be scattered in nature, so overall duration of heavy rain should be short-lived. The main thing to watch with tomorrow`s setup is where any storm training occurs, which should be localized in nature. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Wednesday through Wednesday Night... Remnants of Beryl will move out of the region to the northeast on Wednesday, bringing all of the more widespread showers and storms with it. On Wednesday, scattered showers and storms will remain and taper off through the day. Cooler than normal air will be over the region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s. With tighter pressure gradients associated with this system, breezy winds on the order of 10-12 mph and gusting 20-25mph will prevail through Wednesday evening. In the overnight hours, the low pressure center will be over northwest Ohio and precip chances over the lower Ohio Valley will cease. Skies will clear in the overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the low-mid 60s. Given that winds will persist 5-8mph in the overnight, the fog potential is low. In wind protected valley areas, we could see some patchy fog development. Thursday through Early Next Week... Large scale troughing will remain over the Great Lakes and slowly weaken as ridging in the western CONUS builds. Weakening troughing over the region through the weekend will lead to mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Each day, temperatures will increase by 1-3 degrees until early next week where we will see above normal temperatures. Given weak troughing over the region, couldn`t rule out an afternoon shower or storm as we near convective temperatures, however, there is no widespread forcing to lend to organized development of showers and storms. Conditions should lend to some pleasant summer days until hot and muggy conditions arrive late weekend / early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 754 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Currently, there is some light rain and an isolated thunderstorm or two working to the northeast across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This is in the area of HNB and BWG. Any impacts at these TAF sites are expected to be short-lived and limited. The convection continues to weaken, but is headed towards SDF. In general, VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Tropical Cyclone Beryl could cause some issues during the day tomorrow as scattered showers and thunderstorms work around the parent circulation during the day. There could be brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings as each wave passes over a TAF site. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...KDW SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...SRM AVIATION...KDW