433
FXUS63 KLMK 140706
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Triple-digit heat index values could return this afternoon
    through Tuesday.

*   Chance of showers and storms along and north of I-64 later this
    afternoon/evening with gusty winds, heavy rain.

*   Shower and storm chances look to increase by the middle of this
    week as a frontal boundary sinks into the area.

*   Cooler temps in the 80s for Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The main focus for today will be the increased heat and humidity in
the afternoon across our CWA. Highs will range from the low/mid 90s
with dew points in the low 70s/upper 60s. This will yield max heat
index values at or just above 100 degrees but below the heat
advisory category of 105. Will continue the Special Weather
Statement for the hot and humid conditions. There is a potential to
bust forecast temperatures due to cloud cover associated with
convective debris as well as any development of showers/storms in
the late afternoon & evening. A series of MCS working across
northern IN/southern MI and a second one across WI/MN will push
southeast along the peripheral of the upper ridge associated with a
weak shortwave embedded in the weak northwest flow. While confidence
remains relatively low, given the over achieving convection the last
couple of days and the above mentioned lift from outflow
boundaries/embedded shortwave, decided to carry a 20-30% PoP along
and north of I-64 later this afternoon into the evening. While any
activity will provide relief from the heat, they could also have
gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning. This seems to be in line with
the SPC Day 1 Convective outlook which brings the marginal risk (1
out of 5) to just outside of our CWA across southeast IN/southern
OH.

Forecast for this evening will be dependent on when and where
convection develops in the afternoon. Some of the hi-res models like
the NAM 3km want to bring a line of storms into northern KY/southern
IN this evening. While this appear to be an outlier based on other
CAMs, it should be monitored none the less. Otherwise, skies should
clear with warm and muggy conditions with lows near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday - Tuesday

High pressure will dominate the local weather patttern as
temperatures will be well above normal for Monday and Tuesday. Highs
each day will be in the mid to upper 90s (between 5 and 10 degrees
above normal) with head indices between 100 and 105.  While below
thresholds for heat headlines, sensitive groups and those working
outdoors may experience heat related symptoms.  Ensuring rest breaks
and limiting exposure outside during the peak afternoon heating
hours will help limit heat illness risk.

Dry weather is expected Monday, but Tuesday afternoon into the
evening an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area.  Storms will start isolated on
Tuesday afternoon and increasing in coverage into the evening and
overnight along the passing front.

Wednesday - Sunday

An upper low well north of the Great Lakes and associated surface
cold front across the Ohio Valley will bring enough forcing and
moisture convergence to develop showers and storms for the mid-late
week. While the better jet dynamics will remain to the north of the
forecast area, a few strong storms could develop with heavy
downpours of rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts and hail.

While chances for precipitation may linger after the front passes
each day through the weekend (especially south toward Lake
Cumberland region), a nice temperature drop is expected Thursday and
into the weekend. Highs in the low to mid 80s are near to slightly
below normal for mid July, while high temperatures creep up to near
normal across the state for the weekend in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Skies will remain mostly clear with prevailing VFR flight categories
overnight and the TAF reflects that. While some patchy fog can`t be
ruled out again overnight, confidence compared to the previous
nights/mornings are not as high. The other thing that will need to be
monitored will be any residual outflow boundaries associated with an
MCS coming off Lake Michigan. Some of the hi-res models have showers
and storms developing as the boundary works south through central
and southern Indiana late tomorrow afternoon. This could spark late
day showers and storms across southern IN and northern KY. The main
area would be around SDF but for now confidence is not high enough
to include them in the current TAF. Winds will also increase during
the day to between 5-10kts out of the south-southwest during the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BTN