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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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195 FXUS63 KLMK 110505 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 105 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. * Mostly dry weather through the first half of next week with precipitation chances gradually increasing mid-to-late next week. * Temperatures will gradually warm next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Another fall-like night as temps have already dropped into the 60s in some of the more rural areas, with lower/mid 70s still observed in Louisville and Bowling Green. Dewpoints in the 50s leave us a fair amount of room to drop, but the one source of uncertainty is the mid/high cloud cover trying to push in from Missouri and southern Illinois. Not expecting the cloud deck to hold up very well, but we won`t stay completely clear either. Current forecast mins from the mid 50s to around 60 look good, but we could see some pockets of lower 50s in the more sheltered valleys of the Bluegrass region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The short term is very quiet. High pressure will continue to move into the region from the west over the next two days, which brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s. Dry conditions are also going to continue due to limited moisture in our region. In the overnight hours, we could have some convective debris clouds over the region from dissipating storms over Missouri. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Early Next Week... High pressure will continue in the region from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. Temperatures will still be below normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the low 60s with dry conditions. Broad ridging over the southern CONUS will continue to strengthen. The Ohio Valley will be positioned on the perimeter of the broad ridging. Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to settle into the region. Within this upper-level flow, weak shortwave troughs will move into the region, increasing lift. However, surface flow will remain out of the North and limit moisture in the column. Due to these conditions, we are not expecting any PoPs. Wouldn`t rule out a stray shower, but mostly dry. Mid-Late Next Week... Ridging aloft will begin to shift eastward and increase heights over the Ohio Valley. Moisture will return to the region via southwesterly low level flow. The Ohio Valley will still be under northwesterly flow aloft, with daily shortwaves moving over the region. Daily opportunities for lift to present moisture and increasing instability will bring increased chances for showers and storms towards the end of the week. The end of next week is something to monitor, given a MCS-like setup. Temperatures will increase each day next week back to normal levels. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period. An area of mid- and high-level clouds will move across the region between now and late morning; cloud bases are generally expected to remain at or above 10 kft. During the daytime hours today, a few diurnal cu may develop, with high pressure located just NW of the area facilitating light north and northwest winds, with speeds generally 10 kt or less. Tonight, the end of the current forecast period is expected to bring light and variable winds as high pressure will be centered overhead. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAS SHORT TERM...SRM LONG TERM...SRM AVIATION...CSG