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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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136 FXUS63 KLMK 110706 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another beautiful day expected today with mostly sunny skies and low humidity. * Mostly dry weather through the first half of next week with precipitation chances gradually increasing mid-to-late next week. * Temperatures will gradually warm next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Early this morning, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows scattered mid- and high-level clouds passing through the region. These clouds should continue to pass across the region through the morning hours, slightly modifying the potential cooling between now and sunrise. With that being said, temperatures have dropped into the upper 50s and lower 60s in most areas, and should fall a few more degrees, with lows this morning expected to range from the mid 50s to the low 60s. A bit of river valley fog as been observed across east Kentucky over the past few hours. While patchy valley fog is possible over the next few hours, passing clouds and an overall dry air mass should help to limit fog development to only the deepest valleys. Beautiful weather should continue today across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning should creep toward the Ohio Valley by this evening. A mid- level vort lobe currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern WI/UP Michigan should swing southeast later today, helping to clear out some of the mid-level clouds over the region this morning. Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon with light north and northwest winds. With the sfc high/850 mb ridge closer to the area today, low level CAA should dissipate, allowing for temperatures to reach 1-2 degrees higher than on Saturday. This will still give highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, about 10 degrees below climo. Tonight, with sfc high pressure basically overhead, would expect efficient radiational cooling given light winds. Most short range guidance also keeps skies mostly clear overnight, assisting in temperature falls. If there are extra clouds from convection over Missouri tonight, this could hold temperatures up; however, the current expectation is for slightly cooler lows Monday morning, with some low 50s possible in rural areas east of I-65. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Early Week... The early week timeframe looks to be mostly dry with increasing temperatures, albeit still below normal for this time of year. A stronger belt of westerlies will set up over the Ohio River Valley between upper ridging across the southern CONUS, and troughing over the NE CONUS. Overall, this flow pattern over our area looks pretty unremarkable through early week, with only some minor perturbations passing through. This combined with surface high pressure in place will make for a mostly dry period. Can`t rule out a few instances of a shower or storm during this time, but overall like the idea of better chances ramping up later in the week. Outside of that, the main story will be temps slowly ramping up back into the low and mid 80s for highs. This is still below normal highs in the upper 80s, and this combined with low dew points will keep humidity in check. Mid To Late Week... The upper flow regime becomes more amplified by mid to late week in response to another shortwave progressing through the western CONUS. As this occurs, we`ll see heights/thicknesses rise over our area, with high temps expected to be more solidly into the mid and upper 80s, pretty close to normal for this time of year. As was mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the NW flow pattern on the NE periphery of an upper ridge is a recipe for some upstream MCS activity to move into our region at times. For now, this looks most likely in the Thursday-Friday timeframe, but overall confidence in timing any one event is too low at this range. Like the ongoing messaging of ramped up activity by mid, and especially late week, but also certainly not a washout for any 1 period. Should MCS activity end up being less, will likely have to raise high temps a couple/few degrees more solidly into the upper 80s, and perhaps around 90. On the other hand, if MCS activity does ramp up, a few instances of strong to severe seem possible particularly later Thursday into Friday as an embedded shortwave trough axis approaches, and interacts with the instability in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period. An area of mid- and high-level clouds will move across the region between now and late morning; cloud bases are generally expected to remain at or above 10 kft. During the daytime hours today, a few diurnal cu may develop, with high pressure located just NW of the area facilitating light north and northwest winds, with speeds generally 10 kt or less. Tonight, the end of the current forecast period is expected to bring light and variable winds as high pressure will be centered overhead. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...CSG