710
FXUS63 KLMK 111438
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1038 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Another beautiful day expected today with mostly sunny skies
    and low humidity.

*   Mostly dry weather through the first half of next week with
    precipitation chances gradually increasing mid-to-late next week.

*   Temperatures will gradually warm next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Quiet, fall-like morning with clearing skies, light winds, and
temperatures in the low 70s. Temperatures will remain below normal
today, only warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Very pleasant
Sunday! Current forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Early this morning, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows
scattered mid- and high-level clouds passing through the region.
These clouds should continue to pass across the region through the
morning hours, slightly modifying the potential cooling between now
and sunrise. With that being said, temperatures have dropped into
the upper 50s and lower 60s in most areas, and should fall a few
more degrees, with lows this morning expected to range from the mid
50s to the low 60s. A bit of river valley fog as been observed
across east Kentucky over the past few hours. While patchy valley
fog is possible over the next few hours, passing clouds and an
overall dry air mass should help to limit fog development to only
the deepest valleys.

Beautiful weather should continue today across central Kentucky and
southern Indiana. High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley this
morning should creep toward the Ohio Valley by this evening. A mid-
level vort lobe currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern
WI/UP Michigan should swing southeast later today, helping to clear
out some of the mid-level clouds over the region this morning.
Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon with light north and
northwest winds. With the sfc high/850 mb ridge closer to the area
today, low level CAA should dissipate, allowing for temperatures to
reach 1-2 degrees higher than on Saturday. This will still give
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, about 10 degrees below climo.

Tonight, with sfc high pressure basically overhead, would expect
efficient radiational cooling given light winds. Most short range
guidance also keeps skies mostly clear overnight, assisting in
temperature falls. If there are extra clouds from convection over
Missouri tonight, this could hold temperatures up; however, the
current expectation is for slightly cooler lows Monday morning, with
some low 50s possible in rural areas east of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Early Week...

The early week timeframe looks to be mostly dry with increasing
temperatures, albeit still below normal for this time of year. A
stronger belt of westerlies will set up over the Ohio River Valley
between upper ridging across the southern CONUS, and troughing over
the NE CONUS. Overall, this flow pattern over our area looks pretty
unremarkable through early week, with only some minor perturbations
passing through. This combined with surface high pressure in place
will make for a mostly dry period. Can`t rule out a few instances of
a shower or storm during this time, but overall like the idea of
better chances ramping up later in the week. Outside of that, the
main story will be temps slowly ramping up back into the low and mid
80s for highs. This is still below normal highs in the upper 80s,
and this combined with low dew points will keep humidity in check.

Mid To Late Week...

The upper flow regime becomes more amplified by mid to late week in
response to another shortwave progressing through the western CONUS.
As this occurs, we`ll see heights/thicknesses rise over our area,
with high temps expected to be more solidly into the mid and upper
80s, pretty close to normal for this time of year. As was mentioned
in previous forecast discussions, the NW flow pattern on the NE
periphery of an upper ridge is a recipe for some upstream MCS
activity to move into our region at times. For now, this looks most
likely in the Thursday-Friday timeframe, but overall confidence in
timing any one event is too low at this range. Like the ongoing
messaging of ramped up activity by mid, and especially late week,
but also certainly not a washout for any 1 period. Should MCS
activity end up being less, will likely have to raise high temps a
couple/few degrees more solidly into the upper 80s, and perhaps
around 90. On the other hand, if MCS activity does ramp up, a few
instances of strong to severe seem possible particularly later
Thursday into Friday as an embedded shortwave trough axis approaches,
and interacts with the instability in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period.
This morning, mid and high-level clouds will continue to stream
across the region, with cloud bases remaining at or above 10 kft. A
few cumulus with bases around 5 kft may try to develop this
afternoon; otherwise, light N/NW winds are expected from late this
morning through early evening. Winds are expected to become light
and variable once again around sunset tonight. Scattered mid- and
high-level clouds should return tonight through the end of the
current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CSG