![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
602 FXUS63 KLMK 111841 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 241 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue Monday. * Mostly dry weather through the first half of this week with precipitation chances increasing mid-to-late week. * Temperatures will gradually warm this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another beautiful day today with mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds, and temperatures below normal in the upper 70s and low 80s. This evening, high pressure will be overhead, allowing calm to light winds, and mostly clear skies. Should be another night of ample radiational cooling. Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Broad ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue to amplify, placing the Ohio Valley on the periphery of the ridging. By Monday afternoon, a shortwave will ride along the periphery into the region. Clouds will increase in coverage through the day and winds will veer from northerly to easterly. Moisture and instability is not expected to return to the region, therefore, the shortwave will not have much to work with. It is possible to see some light rain showers as the wave weakens, but this should remain west of I-65. Currently have less than 20% PoPs over this region for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 1-2 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Monday night through Wednesday still appear mostly dry with weak upper ridging crossing the middle section of the country. Daytime convection on Monday over the Missouri Valley will push eastward as a 5H speed max translates from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, but associated storms are expected to fizzle as they move into a drier and more stable environment. Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will slowly drift across the Great Lakes and reach southward, providing us with generally dry weather as most showers and storms remain to our west. Thursday through Sunday an upper ridge will rise over the Upper Plains and Front Range with a more significant upper trough developing Thursday-Friday over the Upper Plains/Midwest and pushes slowly eastward over the weekend. The strength of this system is in question as GEFS 5H spaghetti plots get quite messy from the Plains to the Great Lakes by Thursday-Friday and by the weekend the operational GFS is an outlier among the 1000-500 thickness plumes. So, while confidence in the details is low, it does continue to appear that we`ll see a rise in shower/storm chances as we get into late this week and this weekend. Most severe weather is progged to remain to our west, but a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out here. Right now it appears that the most likely time period would be Friday into Friday night coincident with faster flow aloft, slightly increased instability, and an increased moisture feed from the Gulf. Though afternoon temperatures will be seasonable through the period, gradually increasing humidity will lead to gradually increasing "feels like" temperatures. By Friday afternoon heat index readings may rise into the lower and middle 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Currently, diurnal Cu is beginning to develop over the bluegrass. These will remain SCT around 5kft. Around sunset, these clouds will dissipate and winds will become calm to light. In the morning, winds will begin to veer as high pressure moves over the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRM LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...SRM