025
FXUS63 KLMK 120153
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
953 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue Monday.

*   Mostly dry weather through the first half of this week with
    precipitation chances increasing mid-to-late week.

*   Temperatures will gradually warm this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another September-like evening with low humidity and mild
temperatures, as readings have dropped into the 60s in quite a few
rural areas, and the lower/mid 70s even in the warmest spots. Cloud
cover should be less than last night, allowing min temps to drop a
couple degrees below this morning`s lows. Increasing mid-level
clouds should hold off until Monday afternoon.  Current forecast is
well on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another beautiful day today with mostly sunny skies, light northerly
winds, and temperatures below normal in the upper 70s and low 80s.
This evening, high pressure will be overhead, allowing calm to light
winds, and mostly clear skies. Should be another night of ample
radiational cooling. Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the
upper 50s and low 60s.

Broad ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue to
amplify, placing the Ohio Valley on the periphery of the ridging. By
Monday afternoon, a shortwave will ride along the periphery into the
region. Clouds will increase in coverage through the day and winds
will veer from northerly to easterly. Moisture and instability is
not expected to return to the region, therefore, the shortwave will
not have much to work with. It is possible to see some light rain
showers as the wave weakens, but this should remain west of I-65.
Currently have less than 20% PoPs over this region for Monday
afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 1-2 degrees warmer
than Sunday, in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Monday night through Wednesday still appear mostly dry with weak
upper ridging crossing the middle section of the country. Daytime
convection on Monday over the Missouri Valley will push eastward as
a 5H speed max translates from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, but
associated storms are expected to fizzle as they move into a drier
and more stable environment.

Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will slowly drift across the
Great Lakes and reach southward, providing us with generally dry
weather as most showers and storms remain to our west.

Thursday through Sunday an upper ridge will rise over the Upper
Plains and Front Range with a more significant upper trough
developing Thursday-Friday over the Upper Plains/Midwest and pushes
slowly eastward over the weekend. The strength of this system is in
question as GEFS 5H spaghetti plots get quite messy from the Plains
to the Great Lakes by Thursday-Friday and by the weekend the
operational GFS is an outlier among the 1000-500 thickness plumes.
So, while confidence in the details is low, it does continue to
appear that we`ll see a rise in shower/storm chances as we get into
late this week and this weekend. Most severe weather is progged to
remain to our west, but a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled
out here. Right now it appears that the most likely time period
would be Friday into Friday night coincident with faster flow aloft,
slightly increased instability, and an increased moisture feed from
the Gulf.

Though afternoon temperatures will be seasonable through the period,
gradually increasing humidity will lead to gradually increasing
"feels like" temperatures. By Friday afternoon heat index readings
may rise into the lower and middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period. A few
diurnal cu should dissipate shortly after sunset, leaving light or
even calm winds and sct-bkn cirrus overnight into Monday morning.
Expect light N-NE winds during the mixy portion of the afternoon,
with a mid-level ceiling coming into SDF and HNB late in the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS