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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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141 FXUS63 KLMK 120535 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue Monday. * Mostly dry weather through the first half of this week with precipitation chances increasing mid-to-late week. * Temperatures will gradually warm this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another September-like evening with low humidity and mild temperatures, as readings have dropped into the 60s in quite a few rural areas, and the lower/mid 70s even in the warmest spots. Cloud cover should be less than last night, allowing min temps to drop a couple degrees below this morning`s lows. Increasing mid-level clouds should hold off until Monday afternoon. Current forecast is well on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another beautiful day today with mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds, and temperatures below normal in the upper 70s and low 80s. This evening, high pressure will be overhead, allowing calm to light winds, and mostly clear skies. Should be another night of ample radiational cooling. Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Broad ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue to amplify, placing the Ohio Valley on the periphery of the ridging. By Monday afternoon, a shortwave will ride along the periphery into the region. Clouds will increase in coverage through the day and winds will veer from northerly to easterly. Moisture and instability is not expected to return to the region, therefore, the shortwave will not have much to work with. It is possible to see some light rain showers as the wave weakens, but this should remain west of I-65. Currently have less than 20% PoPs over this region for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 1-2 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Monday night through Wednesday still appear mostly dry with weak upper ridging crossing the middle section of the country. Daytime convection on Monday over the Missouri Valley will push eastward as a 5H speed max translates from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, but associated storms are expected to fizzle as they move into a drier and more stable environment. Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will slowly drift across the Great Lakes and reach southward, providing us with generally dry weather as most showers and storms remain to our west. Thursday through Sunday an upper ridge will rise over the Upper Plains and Front Range with a more significant upper trough developing Thursday-Friday over the Upper Plains/Midwest and pushes slowly eastward over the weekend. The strength of this system is in question as GEFS 5H spaghetti plots get quite messy from the Plains to the Great Lakes by Thursday-Friday and by the weekend the operational GFS is an outlier among the 1000-500 thickness plumes. So, while confidence in the details is low, it does continue to appear that we`ll see a rise in shower/storm chances as we get into late this week and this weekend. Most severe weather is progged to remain to our west, but a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out here. Right now it appears that the most likely time period would be Friday into Friday night coincident with faster flow aloft, slightly increased instability, and an increased moisture feed from the Gulf. Though afternoon temperatures will be seasonable through the period, gradually increasing humidity will lead to gradually increasing "feels like" temperatures. By Friday afternoon heat index readings may rise into the lower and middle 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period. Look for mostly clear skies early this morning with calm or light and variable winds. A light NE surface wind should develop by late morning into the afternoon, along with some high clouds overspreading the region. By this evening, looking for a mid deck of clouds around 8-12 K feet, mainly for HNB/SDF/LEX. Perhaps a few sprinkles could develop for HNB, but not impactful enough to mention at this time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAS SHORT TERM...SRM LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...BJS