084
FXUS63 KLMK 101900
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for Friday
    through early next week. Worsening drought conditions are
    possible.

*   Triple-digit heat index values could return Sunday afternoon and
    are likely early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Clouds will steadily dissipate and winds die down this evening as
the sun sets and the nocturnal inversion builds in. Should be a
quiet and comfortable night with dewpoints generally in the low/mid
60s. With recent rainfall saturating soils and cloud cover limiting
drying today, we`ll likely see patchy fog develop by dawn tomorrow
morning.

Once the morning fog burns off, we`ll start off tomorrow with
plentiful sunshine. Building heights in the wake of our departing
storm (Beryl) will allow temperatures to warm up a bit more tomorrow
vs today, as highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to near 90.
The surface high won`t move much during the day tomorrow, so flow
will be fairly weak/light. Most of the day is shaping up to be dry,
but isolated/scattered showers and storms may develop ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough over the Midwest and impact portions of
our southern Indiana counties. Capping is likely to be too strong to
allow convection to develop farther south/east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Baggy upper level troughing will linger over the Lower Ohio Valley
Thursday night before lifting off to the northeast Friday. Weak low-
level convergence and moisture pooling over the Lower Ohio and Lower
Wabash valleys should yield scattered convection that lingers into
late Thursday evening. Have bumped up PoPs across southern IN and
adjacent portions of west-central KY, where HREF PMM suggests
around a 50% chance or greater for at least 1" of rain in 3 hours.
The convection appears likely to remain confined mostly to the
northwestern CWA, and this activity is likely to weaken after
sunset. Otherwise, Thursday night looks dry with light winds and
patchy fog late. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid 60s in most
places.

Gradual upper level height rises are noted Friday through the
weekend. Ridging expands across the western and southern US. A weak
upper level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the Midwest,
and waves of convection look likely off to our northwest each day.
There is a low chance (10-20%) convective activity sneaks into
southern IN over the weekend. However, much of the weekend is likely
to be dry with progressively hotter temps. Highs on Friday will
likely be in the upper 80s/lower 90s, with low/mid 90s more likely
over the weekend. The heat index is forecast to approach 100 degrees
by Sunday afternoon.

Monday looks hotter still with afternoon temps well into the 90s
expected. Heat indices are likely to reach or exceed 100 across
most, if not the the whole CWA. Heading into the middle of next
week, forecast confidence is lower. Rain/thunderstorm chances will
increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the ridge aloft starts to get
broken down by stronger northern stream troughing. Richer moisture
is advected into the region ahead of the northern stream low
pressure system/frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MVFR to low-end VFR stratus is slowly lifting and scouring out of
the region this afternoon. Some strato-cu has developed in its wake
but should dissipate this evening. Winds will stay gusty through the
afternoon but turn light/variable after sunset with the nocturnal
inversion building in.

Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds are expected overnight.
Could see some patchy fog develop at some TAF sites toward dawn but
will quickly burn off with the rising sun. Light winds will persist
into tomorrow as broad surface high pressure settles nearby.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...DM