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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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170 FXUS63 KLMK 121908 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue today and Tuesday. A few sprinkles possible by tonight. * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms are possible. * Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to develop over the region during the overnight hours. Along this flow, a shortwave will move over the Ohio Valley. Mid-upper level clouds will begin to build in from the west. Forecast soundings are still showing enough mid-level moisture to offer some light rain or sprinkles. Below 850mb, still showing dry soundings with light northeasterly flow. Could see some drizzle given dry low-levels. Kept PoPs under 20% mainly west of I- 65 and sprinkles over the northern half of the region. These conditions will last through the morning hours. High pressure will continue to drive conditions on Tuesday with northeasterly flow, dry air, and partly cloudy skies. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to steepen as central CONUS ridging amplifies. High temperatures will warm a bit higher than Monday, in the mid 80s (still slightly below normal). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper flow will turn more active after Wednesday as an upper level trough digs into the Midwest. Several waves/rounds of showers and storms are possible as the upper trough approaches, though the timing of these features remains a bit difficult this far out. In general, our `peak` timeframe for showers/storms is shaping up to be Thursday afternoon through most of Friday. Will have to keep an eye out on strong to severe potential as model ensemble means of CAPE/shear would support a lower-end severe threat. By the weekend, our region will likely be sitting at the base of the upper level trough, and a weak surface cold front could be near or pushing into the region. Isolated/Scattered showers and storms could linger for the first half of the weekend, but the general trend points to drying conditions, particularly as we go forward into early next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be slightly lower during this timeframe in the post-frontal airmass, though still within a few degrees of climo normals. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period. High pressure over the region is leading to mostly clear skies and calm to light winds. As we reach peak heating, diurnal Cu is developing over the northern half of the region and mid-high level clouds are beginning to build in from the west. Northwesterly flow aloft and a weak shortwave moving towards the Ohio Valley will bring some sprinkles or light rain over HNB this evening and into the overnight hours. Not expecting anything more than this, given very limited moisture in the region. Overnight winds will become calm and mid- high level clouds will continue to stream over the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRM LONG TERM...DM AVIATION...SRM