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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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837 FXUS63 KLMK 130104 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 904 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue today and Tuesday. A few sprinkles possible by tonight. * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms are possible. * Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Only minor update made to the forecast was to expand PoP coverage (albeit low-end PoPs) across the region to account for radar and observational trends. Don`t think too many locations will actually see much in the way of measurable rain, but these showers have been able to overcome the low/mid level dry air to at least get a few drops to the ground. Rest of forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to develop over the region during the overnight hours. Along this flow, a shortwave will move over the Ohio Valley. Mid-upper level clouds will begin to build in from the west. Forecast soundings are still showing enough mid-level moisture to offer some light rain or sprinkles. Below 850mb, still showing dry soundings with light northeasterly flow. Could see some drizzle given dry low-levels. Kept PoPs under 20% mainly west of I- 65 and sprinkles over the northern half of the region. These conditions will last through the morning hours. High pressure will continue to drive conditions on Tuesday with northeasterly flow, dry air, and partly cloudy skies. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to steepen as central CONUS ridging amplifies. High temperatures will warm a bit higher than Monday, in the mid 80s (still slightly below normal). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper flow will turn more active after Wednesday as an upper level trough digs into the Midwest. Several waves/rounds of showers and storms are possible as the upper trough approaches, though the timing of these features remains a bit difficult this far out. In general, our `peak` timeframe for showers/storms is shaping up to be Thursday afternoon through most of Friday. Will have to keep an eye out on strong to severe potential as model ensemble means of CAPE/shear would support a lower-end severe threat. By the weekend, our region will likely be sitting at the base of the upper level trough, and a weak surface cold front could be near or pushing into the region. Isolated/Scattered showers and storms could linger for the first half of the weekend, but the general trend points to drying conditions, particularly as we go forward into early next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be slightly lower during this timeframe in the post-frontal airmass, though still within a few degrees of climo normals. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Clouds and some spotty light rain showers are pushing in from the west this evening, but will struggle to persist with eastward extent as they encounter dry mid/low levels. Included a PROB30 mention for showers at HNB, but think odds of a shower elsewhere are too low to warrant mention. Any showers that do develop over TAF sites should have little to no impacts on cigs/vis. Otherwise, winds will stay light through the forecast period with nearby high pressure to the north. Mid to high level clouds will likely persist into tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DM SHORT TERM...SRM LONG TERM...DM AVIATION...DM