837
FXUS63 KLMK 130104
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
904 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue
    today and Tuesday. A few sprinkles possible by tonight.

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of
    storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms
    are possible.

*   Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by
    mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Only minor update made to the forecast was to expand PoP coverage
(albeit low-end PoPs) across the region to account for radar and
observational trends. Don`t think too many locations will actually
see much in the way of measurable rain, but these showers have been
able to overcome the low/mid level dry air to at least get a few
drops to the ground. Rest of forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to develop over the region
during the overnight hours. Along this flow, a shortwave will move
over the Ohio Valley. Mid-upper level clouds will begin to build in
from the west. Forecast soundings are still showing enough mid-level
moisture to offer some light rain or sprinkles. Below 850mb, still
showing dry soundings with light northeasterly flow. Could see some
drizzle given dry low-levels. Kept PoPs under 20% mainly west of I-
65 and sprinkles over the northern half of the region. These
conditions will last through the morning hours.

High pressure will continue to drive conditions on Tuesday with
northeasterly flow, dry air, and partly cloudy skies. Northwesterly
flow aloft will continue to steepen as central CONUS ridging
amplifies. High temperatures will warm a bit higher than Monday,
in the mid 80s (still slightly below normal).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Upper flow will turn more active after Wednesday as an upper level
trough digs into the Midwest. Several waves/rounds of showers and
storms are possible as the upper trough approaches, though the
timing of these features remains a bit difficult this far out. In
general, our `peak` timeframe for showers/storms is shaping up to be
Thursday afternoon through most of Friday. Will have to keep an eye
out on strong to severe potential as model ensemble means of
CAPE/shear would support a lower-end severe threat.

By the weekend, our region will likely be sitting at the base of the
upper level trough, and a weak surface cold front could be near or
pushing into the region. Isolated/Scattered showers and storms could
linger for the first half of the weekend, but the general trend
points to drying conditions, particularly as we go forward into early
next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be slightly lower
during this timeframe in the post-frontal airmass, though still
within a few degrees of climo normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Clouds and some
spotty light rain showers are pushing in from the west this evening,
but will struggle to persist with eastward extent as they encounter
dry mid/low levels. Included a PROB30 mention for showers at HNB,
but think odds of a shower elsewhere are too low to warrant mention.
Any showers that do develop over TAF sites should have little to no
impacts on cigs/vis.

Otherwise, winds will stay light through the forecast period with
nearby high pressure to the north. Mid to high level clouds will
likely persist into tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...DM