483
FXUS63 KLMK 131557
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue
    today. A few sprinkles possible early this morning.

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of
    storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms
    are possible.

*   Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by
    mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Current forecast remains in good shape.  Still have a bit of mid-
high level cloudiness moving through the region.  Current
temperatures were in the mid-upper 70s with a few spots already
hitting 80.  Went closer to the CONSShort guidance here with highs
in the 81-86 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Sprinkles and very light rain showers continue to slowly move ESE
across our region. Expect these will hang around til sunrise or just
after, before things return to dry for the remainder of the day. A
few spots may measure, but overall wouldn`t expect much more than a
few drops on the windshield if you even see any precipitation at all.

Unremarkable NW flow aloft will continue to drive our upper pattern
through the short term. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will stay
centered over the Great Lakes region. This keeps us dry, with
warming temperatures. Looking for low and mid 80s for highs today
under variable mid and upper clouds. Tonight`s lows dip into the low
and mid 60s, dependent upon upper sky cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

As an upper ridge axis over the Midwest moves east into the Ohio
Valley, an upper trough is expected to begin digging farther south
across the Upper Plains as it heads into the Midwest. This will keep
southern Indiana and central Kentucky dry on Wednesday, but southern
flow ahead of an approaching cold front will begin lifting dew
points back into the 70s for some on Thursday as precipitable water
values climb to over 2" across the CWA. This added moisture will
remain in the area until the front passes sometime early Saturday,
so the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm will remain in the
area from Thursday to early Saturday. High temperatures during this
time will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s, but the front will
slightly limit highs on Saturday by a few degrees.

Behind the front, the region will see slightly cooler temperatures
with highs in the mid 80s. Most areas are expected to remain dry
from the second half of the weekend into early next week as skies
remain mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mid clouds and
spotty very light showers or sprinkles will persist a couple more
hours this morning. Likely won`t rain hard enough for any vis
impacts, and coverage is too spotty to have any prevailing
confidence, so won`t mention in TAF. Outside of that, look for very
light NE surface winds with periods of mid and high clouds
continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION.....BJS