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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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842 FXUS63 KLMK 131724 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 124 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue today. A few sprinkles possible early this morning. * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms are possible. * Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current forecast remains in good shape. Still have a bit of mid- high level cloudiness moving through the region. Current temperatures were in the mid-upper 70s with a few spots already hitting 80. Went closer to the CONSShort guidance here with highs in the 81-86 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Sprinkles and very light rain showers continue to slowly move ESE across our region. Expect these will hang around til sunrise or just after, before things return to dry for the remainder of the day. A few spots may measure, but overall wouldn`t expect much more than a few drops on the windshield if you even see any precipitation at all. Unremarkable NW flow aloft will continue to drive our upper pattern through the short term. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will stay centered over the Great Lakes region. This keeps us dry, with warming temperatures. Looking for low and mid 80s for highs today under variable mid and upper clouds. Tonight`s lows dip into the low and mid 60s, dependent upon upper sky cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 As an upper ridge axis over the Midwest moves east into the Ohio Valley, an upper trough is expected to begin digging farther south across the Upper Plains as it heads into the Midwest. This will keep southern Indiana and central Kentucky dry on Wednesday, but southern flow ahead of an approaching cold front will begin lifting dew points back into the 70s for some on Thursday as precipitable water values climb to over 2" across the CWA. This added moisture will remain in the area until the front passes sometime early Saturday, so the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm will remain in the area from Thursday to early Saturday. High temperatures during this time will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s, but the front will slightly limit highs on Saturday by a few degrees. Behind the front, the region will see slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Most areas are expected to remain dry from the second half of the weekend into early next week as skies remain mostly sunny. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Mid and high level clouds will continue to move through the region during the period. Winds today will be light out of the northeast and these winds will become light/variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected for tonight and into the day on Wednesday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE.......MJ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION.....MJ