380
FXUS63 KLMK 140551
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of
    storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms
    are possible.

*   Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by
    mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations show partly to mostly
sunny skies across the region.  Temperatures were in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s, with the warm spots being over in the northeast part
of the state near Ashland.  In the near term, no significant weather
is expected.  Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with readings falling into the upper 70s by mid-evening.

For tonight, quiet weather is expected as northwest flow aloft will
continue across the region.  With high pressure moving through the
Great Lakes, another dry night of weather is expected.  Overnight
lows will fall into the lower-mid 60s for most locations, a few of
the typical cool spots may get into the upper 50s.

Northwest flow will continue across the region on Wednesday as mid-
level heights rise slightly.  This should lead to more sunshine and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Generally speaking, highs look to
warm into the 82-87 degree range Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

Upper-level ridging will move over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night
through Thursday. As heights increase, temperatures will also
increase back to normal levels. At the surface, high pressure will
move off to the east and surface flow will veer southerly allowing
moisture to return to the region on Thursday. PWATs will increase to
around 2 inches by Thursday afternoon. Over the northern Plains and
upper Midwest, troughing will dig south leading to the next system
to move through the region. As the system moves east, cloud coverage
and precipitation chances will increase. Showers and storms are
possible Thursday late afternoon through Friday, after the cold
front passes through the region. Given modest instability and ample
moisture, will likely see some storms capable of gusty-damaging
winds and heavy rain. Shear is limited-weak, therefore, not
expecting great organization of storms.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

As the front moves through the region, precip chances will decrease,
winds will shift to a northwesterly direction, dew points will drop,
and temperatures will dip just slightly below normal. Expect to see
these conditions remain over the region through the remainder of the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions continue through this forecast cycle, with light to
calm winds and only a few mid/upper clouds at times. Any prevailing
wind gradient should be generally out of the N to the E.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...BJS