![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
772 FXUS63 KLMK 140732 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 332 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Quiet weather continues in the short term as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends influence into our area. Meanwhile, unremarkable NW flow aloft holds over our area on the NE periphery of a southern CONUS ridge. That upper ridge axis slides a bit eastward today, which results in slightly increased heights/thicknesses across our area. Other than few-sct high based cu through the afternoon, it looks like we`ll have enough sunshine to warm up pretty nicely. As a result, looking for mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly touching 90 if the the diurnal cu isn`t too pronounced. Look for another quiet night tonight with pretty good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow for lows dropping into the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thursday morning, an upper ridge will pass over the Lower Ohio Valley as a strengthening upper trough crosses from the Upper Plains into the Midwest. With high surface pressure over Appalachia, southern winds will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will begin lifting dew points into the low 70s west of Interstate 65 as precipitable water values climb to near 2". This added moisture will remain in the area until a cold front which will develop in the aforementioned upper trough passes through the region on Saturday. Overall the forecast remains on track with model guidance remaining fairly consistent. Currently, it appears the best chance for precipitation ahead of the front will be Thursday night through Friday morning with most of the activity across southern Indiana and along the Ohio River, but this could still shift. Given the time of day, severe weather isn`t expected with any showers or thunderstorms. The best chance for anything stronger or severe would be Friday afternoon if something was to develop. Deep layer instability could be strong enough to produce gusty winds and some hail. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s before the precipitation limits highs on Friday by a few degrees. Mid to upper 80s are expected to stick around through mid week. Behind the front, most areas are expected to remain dry from the second half of the weekend into the middle of next week as skies remain mostly sunny. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions continue through this forecast cycle, with light to calm winds and only a few mid/upper clouds at times. Any prevailing wind gradient should be generally out of the N to the E. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...BJS