598
FXUS63 KLMK 141501
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1101 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for
    showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday.
    Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday
    afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Morning satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the region
this morning.  Temperatures were in the upper 70s in many areas with
a few spots already touching 80.  Current forecast remains on track
for today.  We may see an increase in some mid-high clouds later
this afternoon as convective complexes out to the west pass by.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s are expected, though a few spots
could briefly touch 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Quiet weather continues in the short term as high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes extends influence into our area. Meanwhile,
unremarkable NW flow aloft holds over our area on the NE periphery
of a southern CONUS ridge. That upper ridge axis slides a bit
eastward today, which results in slightly increased
heights/thicknesses across our area. Other than few-sct high based
cu through the afternoon, it looks like we`ll have enough sunshine
to warm up pretty nicely. As a result, looking for mid to upper 80s
with a few spots possibly touching 90 if the the diurnal cu isn`t
too pronounced. Look for another quiet night tonight with pretty
good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow for lows
dropping into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Thursday morning, an upper ridge will pass over the Lower Ohio
Valley as a strengthening upper trough crosses from the Upper Plains
into the Midwest. With high surface pressure over Appalachia,
southern winds will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will begin lifting dew
points into the low 70s west of Interstate 65 as precipitable water
values climb to near 2". This added moisture will remain in the area
until a cold front which will develop in the aforementioned upper
trough passes through the region on Saturday.

Overall the forecast remains on track with model guidance remaining
fairly consistent. Currently, it appears the best chance for
precipitation ahead of the front will be Thursday night through
Friday morning with most of the activity across southern Indiana and
along the Ohio River, but this could still shift. Given the time of
day, severe weather isn`t expected with any showers or
thunderstorms. The best chance for anything stronger or severe would
be Friday afternoon if something was to develop. Deep layer
instability could be strong enough to produce gusty winds and some
hail.

High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the upper
80s to low 90s before the precipitation limits highs on Friday by a
few degrees. Mid to upper 80s are expected to stick around through
mid week.

Behind the front, most areas are expected to remain dry from the
second half of the weekend into the middle of next week as skies
remain mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Other than some brief fog at BWG/HNB this morning, VFR conditions
continue through this forecast cycle. Light to calm winds generally
out of the E or NE should prevail with only a few mid/upper clouds
at times. Patchy fog may again be possible by Thursday morning,
however increasing upper clouds by then may be a limiting factor.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION.....BJS