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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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488 FXUS63 KLMK 141724 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 124 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Morning satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the region this morning. Temperatures were in the upper 70s in many areas with a few spots already touching 80. Current forecast remains on track for today. We may see an increase in some mid-high clouds later this afternoon as convective complexes out to the west pass by. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s are expected, though a few spots could briefly touch 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Quiet weather continues in the short term as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends influence into our area. Meanwhile, unremarkable NW flow aloft holds over our area on the NE periphery of a southern CONUS ridge. That upper ridge axis slides a bit eastward today, which results in slightly increased heights/thicknesses across our area. Other than few-sct high based cu through the afternoon, it looks like we`ll have enough sunshine to warm up pretty nicely. As a result, looking for mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly touching 90 if the the diurnal cu isn`t too pronounced. Look for another quiet night tonight with pretty good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow for lows dropping into the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thursday morning, an upper ridge will pass over the Lower Ohio Valley as a strengthening upper trough crosses from the Upper Plains into the Midwest. With high surface pressure over Appalachia, southern winds will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will begin lifting dew points into the low 70s west of Interstate 65 as precipitable water values climb to near 2". This added moisture will remain in the area until a cold front which will develop in the aforementioned upper trough passes through the region on Saturday. Overall the forecast remains on track with model guidance remaining fairly consistent. Currently, it appears the best chance for precipitation ahead of the front will be Thursday night through Friday morning with most of the activity across southern Indiana and along the Ohio River, but this could still shift. Given the time of day, severe weather isn`t expected with any showers or thunderstorms. The best chance for anything stronger or severe would be Friday afternoon if something was to develop. Deep layer instability could be strong enough to produce gusty winds and some hail. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s before the precipitation limits highs on Friday by a few degrees. Mid to upper 80s are expected to stick around through mid week. Behind the front, most areas are expected to remain dry from the second half of the weekend into the middle of next week as skies remain mostly sunny. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period. For this afternoon, mainly clear skies are expected with just a few high clouds. May see a scattered Cu deck develop around FL050 over at KLEX/RGA. These clouds should mix out this evening. Wind this afternoon will be very light out of the northeast with speeds of less than 4kts. VFR conditions are expected overnight and into the day on Thursday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE.......MJ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION.....MJ