760
FXUS63 KLMK 142311
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for
    showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday.
    Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday
    afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The weather remains quiet across the region this afternoon as we
remain under a northwest flow aloft.  Just seeing a few high cirrus
drift in from the west with a decent Cu field setting up mainly
across east-central and eastern KY.  Temperatures are running a
slightly below forecast in areas that have seen the deeper Cu field.
Readings were generally in the 84-90 degree range with many areas
centered in the 84-87 degree range.  No significant weather is
expected for the remainder of the afternoon.

For tonight, another quiet night is on tap.  We should see good
radiational cooling across our eastern CWA.  A little less
optimistic for radiational cooling across the western areas where
upper level cirrus and convective cloud debris may inhibit outgoing
radiation.  Lows in the east/Bluegrass should drop into the low-mid
60s.  West of I-65, mid 60s are most likely.

For Thursday, another quiet day is expected as mid-level ridging
builds over the area ahead of an approaching mid-level wave across
the Midwest.  We`ll probably have a bit more high cloudiness moving
across the region, but highs will top out again in the mid-upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Thursday morning, an upper ridge will pass over the Lower Ohio
Valley as a strengthening upper trough crosses from the Upper Plains
into the Midwest. With high surface pressure over Appalachia,
southern winds will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will begin lifting dew
points into the low 70s west of Interstate 65 as precipitable water
values climb to near 2". This added moisture will remain in the area
until a cold front which will develop in the aforementioned upper
trough passes through the region on Saturday.

Overall the forecast remains on track with model guidance remaining
fairly consistent. Currently, it appears the best chance for
precipitation ahead of the front will be Thursday night through
Friday morning with most of the activity across southern Indiana and
along the Ohio River, but this could still shift. Given the time of
day, severe weather isn`t expected with any showers or
thunderstorms. The best chance for anything stronger or severe would
be Friday afternoon if something was to develop. Deep layer
instability could be strong enough to produce gusty winds and some
hail.

High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the upper
80s to low 90s before the precipitation limits highs on Friday by a
few degrees. Mid to upper 80s are expected to stick around through
mid week.

Behind the front, most areas are expected to remain dry from the
second half of the weekend into the middle of next week as skies
remain mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period. Winds will
go light or calm tonight, out of the ESE if they lock in on any
direction at all.  Variable will be the more likely scenario. Should
see just enough cirrus that fog formation shouldn`t be a concern
going into Thursday morning.

Should see a period of light SE winds mid to late morning on Thu, as
it will require the deeper mixing to veer to southerly. Speeds less
than 10 kt anyway. Upstream convection could creep into HNB and SDF
very late in the period, but left any precip out of both sites for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...RAS