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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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922 FXUS63 KLMK 150200 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1000 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 959 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Tranquil and warm weather this evening, if not very muggy by mid- August standards. We`ll stay dry overnight and most of Thursday as low-level dry air will mostly win out, but anvil cirrus will increase through the day from convective complexes to our west. No changes to the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The weather remains quiet across the region this afternoon as we remain under a northwest flow aloft. Just seeing a few high cirrus drift in from the west with a decent Cu field setting up mainly across east-central and eastern KY. Temperatures are running a slightly below forecast in areas that have seen the deeper Cu field. Readings were generally in the 84-90 degree range with many areas centered in the 84-87 degree range. No significant weather is expected for the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, another quiet night is on tap. We should see good radiational cooling across our eastern CWA. A little less optimistic for radiational cooling across the western areas where upper level cirrus and convective cloud debris may inhibit outgoing radiation. Lows in the east/Bluegrass should drop into the low-mid 60s. West of I-65, mid 60s are most likely. For Thursday, another quiet day is expected as mid-level ridging builds over the area ahead of an approaching mid-level wave across the Midwest. We`ll probably have a bit more high cloudiness moving across the region, but highs will top out again in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thursday morning, an upper ridge will pass over the Lower Ohio Valley as a strengthening upper trough crosses from the Upper Plains into the Midwest. With high surface pressure over Appalachia, southern winds will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will begin lifting dew points into the low 70s west of Interstate 65 as precipitable water values climb to near 2". This added moisture will remain in the area until a cold front which will develop in the aforementioned upper trough passes through the region on Saturday. Overall the forecast remains on track with model guidance remaining fairly consistent. Currently, it appears the best chance for precipitation ahead of the front will be Thursday night through Friday morning with most of the activity across southern Indiana and along the Ohio River, but this could still shift. Given the time of day, severe weather isn`t expected with any showers or thunderstorms. The best chance for anything stronger or severe would be Friday afternoon if something was to develop. Deep layer instability could be strong enough to produce gusty winds and some hail. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s before the precipitation limits highs on Friday by a few degrees. Mid to upper 80s are expected to stick around through mid week. Behind the front, most areas are expected to remain dry from the second half of the weekend into the middle of next week as skies remain mostly sunny. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 709 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period. Winds will go light or calm tonight, out of the ESE if they lock in on any direction at all. Variable will be the more likely scenario. Should see just enough cirrus that fog formation shouldn`t be a concern going into Thursday morning. Should see a period of light SE winds mid to late morning on Thu, as it will require the deeper mixing to veer to southerly. Speeds less than 10 kt anyway. Upstream convection could creep into HNB and SDF very late in the period, but left any precip out of both sites for now. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAS SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...RAS