015
FXUS63 KLMK 151105
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for
    showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday.
    Isolated strong or severe storms could be possible Friday
    afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Today will begin uneventful under mostly clear skies with calm
to light and variable winds. This is in thanks to an upper ridge
sliding over the region and surface high pressure, centered over
Pennsylvania, influencing the Ohio Valley, but just behind the upper
ridge, an upper trough is pushing a line of convection through Iowa
and Missouri. This line is continuing to weaken, but it could hold
together long enough to make it into western Indiana and western
Kentucky. This could provide for a few sprinkles this afternoon if
it can survive, but not expecting thunderstorms or anything much
more than a few drops as model soundings show there isn`t much in
the way of instability and a dry layer near the surface. We can
expect to see increasing cirrus and some mid level clouds as we head
into the afternoon hours. The mostly dry, mostly sunny day will lift
temperatures into the upper 80s with the possibility of a few places
reaching 90.

Tonight, as we sit in the warm sector behind the warm front and
ahead of an approaching cold front, that`s embedded in the upper
trough, southern winds will continue to funnel Gulf of Mexico
moisture into the Lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the low 70s will
continue working into the CWA from the southwest as precipitable
water values approach 2". This will increase shower and thunderstorm
chances throughout the night as  they become more widespread during
the second half of the night. Severe weather isn`t expected as model
guidance shows limited instability and stable near surface layer.
Added sky cover and warm air advection is expected to keep lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Friday morning still appears to be the most likely time for heavy
and widespread precipitation to move across the region as an axis of
2" PWATs moves through the area. Model guidance continues to show
limited instability and shear with high LCLs, so severe weather
isn`t expected. The best chance for anything stronger or severe
would be Friday afternoon, but also believe the chances of this are
less than they were yesterday as cloud cover will likely limit
instability recovery. There remains some uncertainty on timing with
additional shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. With
the cold front expected to move through the region on Saturday,
additional rainfall is expected, but wouldn`t count on the whole
weekend being a washout as this is summer convection, more scattered
in nature. Behind the front, precipitation chances will begin to
diminish.

High temperatures on Friday are expected to reach into the upper 80s
to low 90s before the cold front passes on Saturday, limiting highs
on Sunday to the low to mid 80s. These cooler temperatures will last
into the middle of next week.

From Sunday through the end of the work week, a large upper ridge
and surface high pressure will bring a return of dry mostly sunny
skies to the Lower Ohio Valley. After the surface high passes east
of the region late in the week, slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected from southern surface flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 705 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected through
the period. Upper ridging and surface high pressure just off to the
northeast are keeping skies mostly clear and winds light, but as we
continue through the period, an advancing surface low will increase
the pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley, resulting in sub
10 knot winds out of a general southerly direction. High level
clouds are also expected to become more dense ahead of approaching
upstream convection.

Tonight, as the upper trough begins to approach southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin
increasing from the northwest to southeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW