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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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112 FXUS63 KLMK 200545 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 145 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early next week. * Shower and storm chances increase across southern KY this weekend, then everywhere else by next week. * Locally heavy rainfall possible with any of these showers and storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Areas east of I-65 are seeing high clouds overhead this evening. Areas west of I-65 will remain mostly clear through the overnight hours. With some clearing and calm to light winds, patchy fog development is possible in the early morning hours. Otherwise, weak troughing will swing through the region bringing weak forcing. Weak forcing coupled with moisture return over southern Kentucky will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, feeling muggy to the south with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s and comfortable to the north with dew points in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Broad area of sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature tonight into tomorrow with predominantly dry weather for most of our CWA. A positive tilted trough aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay towards Louisiana along with an Upper Ridge Axis centered over Bermuda in the Atlantic will allow for Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase over the region for the weekend. A weak impulse coming out of the Deep South will move northeast through the TN Valley tonight into tomorrow while sfc reflection will move along the same path along a stalled sfc boundary helping to increase clouds and shower/storm chances during the day tomorrow. High clouds will increase overnight from the south as winds become light and variable. Dew point values will be a little higher than last night along with our temperatures tonight. Lows in the low/mid 60s are expected with a few upper 50s across southern IN. Depending on cloud cover, there could be some very isolated fog development, mostly along the KY/TN borders where we`ve seen the most rain from the last couple of days. Thanks to the aforementioned sfc high over the region, fair dry weather is expected but as the weak sfc low works along the stalled boundary to our south, an inverted sfc trough will nose northward into south-central KY. This will help to increase shower/storm chances in the afternoon for locations along to south of the Parkways. I anticipate most of the activity to be limited and isolated to scattered in nature given the general lack of lift. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 An active weather pattern is on tap late weekend into the next week with chances for precipitation each day. A general stagnant upper level trough of low pressure will hang across the area. With limited jet energy Sunday and Monday and few forecast vort maximums, not expecting much in the way of strong organized thunderstorms. However, model forecast soundings do have decent depictions of instability that increases with locations closer to the KY/TN border. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere could lead to heavy rain producers and perhaps some areas of small hail and locally gusty winds in thunderstorms. Tuesday and beyond, more moisture with PWs at 2+ inches advect across areas of stagnant vort maximums southeast of a line from Bowling Green to Campbellsville to Lexington. In these areas there is increasing confidence for thunderstorm training and higher chances for efficient heavy rain producing storms. Model forecast soundings show meager instability and lack of shearing winds, however the pattern is conducive for efficient rain producers. Flooding is possible depending on rain rates and the location of storm tracks. Current forecast has upwards of 1.5-2 inches of rain accumulations from repeated rounds of rain through the end of next week, although higher amounts of rain are almost entirely possible in heavier rain producer thunderstorms. Outside of Sunday`s high temperatures being close to normal in the mid to upper 80s, max temperatures will gradually lessen to the low to mid 80s toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Through the current forecast period, low-level moisture will increase from south to north as a weak disturbance passes through the region later today. Current observations show 6-7 kft ceilings across much of Tennessee and into BWG at this hour. These clouds should work their way toward SDF/LEX/RGA over the next few hours, with SCT-BKN 5-7 kft clouds continuing through much of the day. Winds are expected to be fairly light through the period, with a weak pressure gradient causing low confidence in prevailing wind direction. Later today, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near BWG. While a few of these cells will move toward LEX/RGA, confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. After sunset this evening, VFR conditions should continue with rain showers expected to diminish. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRM SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...MCK AVIATION...CSG