418
FXUS63 KLMK 190127
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early
    next week.

*   Shower and storm chances return by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure continues to build in, with north winds and dewpoints
mainly in the 50s, with a few spots near 60 even along the KY/TN
border. Well on track for a refreshingly cool night by mid-July
standards, with mins in the upper 50s/lower 60s for most.

The near-term forecast is well on track, but we did make some tweaks
for late Friday with the wave kicking ENE across the Tennessee
Valley. Main impact was to delay any precip across south-central
Kentucky well into Fri night as low-level dry air should win out for
a while. Main sensible wx impact will be an increase in mid/high
clouds beginning Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Positively tilted trough stretching from the Hudson Bay towards the
Lower Mississippi Valley along with strong sfc high pressure over
the region will keep our weather dry, comfortable and unseasonably
cool tonight into tomorrow. Northerly winds from this afternoon will
diminish or become calm overnight, with mainly clear skies and dew
points bottoming out in the mid/upper 50s morning lows will be much
cooler than previous mornings. Morning lows will range from the
mid/upper 50s across southern IN with upper 50s/low 60s across
central KY to start the day tomorrow.

While we will remain under the influence of both the aforementioned
trough and sfc high, afternoon temperatures will be a little warmer
than today with even slightly warmer dew points. Upper winds will
shift from the east-northeast to the southeast later in the day as
the sfc high pressure works eastward towards Lake Erie, all helping
to increase the sfc moisture and allow for warmer temperatures.
Highs will still be below seasonal norms but in the low to mid 80s.
High clouds will increase from the south during the day tomorrow as
a weak impulse coming out of the Deep South works into the TN
Valley. Any shower/storm activity will likely remain off to our far
southeast but will have a low 10 to 20 PoP across Cumberland,
Clinton and Russell counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Friday night - Saturday Night:

A blocking upper level high pressure pattern over the Great Basin
and general trough pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS is
well defined across several models during this time frame with low
jet winds aloft.  However the general stagnation of the atmospheric
pattern allows for weak high pressure for a portion of the area with
a stalling front draped across the Carolinas that will keep
precipitation chances fro the southeast portion of the area on a
line from Bowling Green to Campbellsville to Lexington.  Model
forecast soundings during this time have plenty of moisture through
the profile with some instability and a lack of jet winds, so
flooding potential would be the primary threat but severe
thunderstorms look unlikely at this point. Afternoon high
temperatures will creep up closer to normal in the upper 80s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Positively tilted upper level trough positioned to the west along
the MS River valley will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms
continuing through mid week. While the entire area will see some
rounds of storms, the best chances are to the southeast of a line
from Russellville to Elizabethtown to Frankfort.  Storm total
preciptation amounts could end up between 1 and 2 inches with
locally higher amounts possible between 2.5 or 3 inches. With slow
moving thunderstorms, flooding is possible with a remote chance of a
stronger thunderstorm bringing some damaging wind potential (low
confidence).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions through the valid TAF period, with little or no fog
concern overnight as a modest NNE gradient will be enough to keep it
mixy, though wind speeds drop off to around 5 kt a couple hrs after
sunset. Light NE winds expected during the day on Sat, with
thickening cirrus in response to an impulse lifting into the
Tennessee Valley. Could even see mid-level cigs creep into BWG and
RGA late in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...RAS